Words of Wisdom From Wazees To Miguna Miguna and Others

I can safely say most of us on these Internets (GB’s word) don’t know each other, other than what comes across on these screens. For some, such as yours truly, what you see coming across your screen is no different from what you can expect, if you ever came to know me in person as those of you who know me in person can attest.

Others can’t say the same for they have taken aliases and are simply actors on the net, some for good, others for evil reasons.

Regardless of who we are, I fairly certain unless one was raised by wolves (and there are some I sometimes wonder if, in fact, they were not so raised), all of us have been from childhood instilled with some sense of respect for others and in my case, respect for others is an integral part of one’s honor and integrity and more so respect for the older folk which, among Kisiis, is probably the highest virtue–at least for people my generation.

Someone, a brilliant young lady then pursuing her Ph.D at a prestigious university here in the US, once posed a question to me back in 2002 when I was supporting my good friend, Simeon Nyachae for president and her question was, why was I supporting “these old people?”

That question really threw me aback; here I was, relatively young and two years into my professional career as a lawyer and here is this equally relatively young lady of my age, with places to go herself, yet she was questioning my support for an older person or to put it more aptly, after deeper conversation, my finding that her belief was the answer to our ills in the country was to have leadership in young people and she, interestingly, looking back now, mentioned Ruto as one person we should have then all rallied behind and push him to run for the presidency.

The lady is Luo and did not want to hear about Raila, having classified him among the “old.”

For those who follow my blogs, I was one of the fiercest critics of Raila at that time so, her not caring for Raila and being the bright young Luo lady she was, was only music to my ears.

But the question remained in my mind to the point I actually had to reassess to determine why I was unfazed by the fact Nyachae was and is the Mzee he is.

It then dawned on me then for the first time it must be for three reasons:

1. As a Kisii, I was raised in a community where I believe respect for the older folk is sacrosanct more than any other community and this translates to deferring to them in everything.
2. My old Mzee, before he passed on, to me represented all the leadership qualities one needs to be good leader as he was–local as it may have been the case–bu a leader nonetheless and a leader having even half of those qualities, will transform a nation. I therefore see every leader from that prism, complete with age; I can’t fathom a younger person, especially in Kenya, let alone Africa, having the wisdom and experience, brilliant and gifted as one may be as both a student and practitioner of politics, to even come close to our Wazees.
3. Yes, these same Wazees have let us down but I believe the solution is not to put top leadership position in our country in the hands of children or young boys and girls politically speaking, who may brilliant and skillful they maybe, they have just not crossed over to the age of leaders in our traditional sense. In other words, we must and shall demand that everyone has their turn and with age comes greater wisdom but not to say those so entrusted with the leadership use and abuse it at will as has been the case in the past; there has to be corresponding need to show the deference is worth it

Someone is probably wondering what does this have to do with the title of this thread and the answer is this:

Regardless of who we are on these fora or whether or not we personally know each other or only know about each other from what we read on these fora, I am fairly certain regardless of how we come across, we do have men and women we respect and pay attention to what they say, be it on these fora or in our personal lives–and yes, this includes the worst of those without manners and fond of insulting others willy nilly–they, too, have people they respect and pay attention to in their lives.

For yours truly, I do what is prominently displayed in one of my office walls; a painting by Norman Rockwell stating the Golden Rule Do Unto Others As You Would Have Them Do Unto You and this is something I have done since childhood. Indeed, I first learned this from my late Mzee who, as in many things he taught me and my siblings, he taught by example and are we glad he did.

Because of this, and I am sure many would relate to this, it has not been that much essential or even necessary to seek counsel or heed to any in most of my life because of that strong foundation in knowing the right or wrong thing to do. In a way, it’s my own Mzee’s wisdom I draw upon such sticky situations and act or do what I am certain he would have done and no one could do it better.

That does not mean I don’t listen or can’t hear what others say; quite the contrary I do and if it meshes with what makes sense, I’ll follow or heed to it, if at variance with my own sense of it for the better of all.

This is a long way of getting close to my point about being stubborn and when it’s important to listen to others, even when you truly believe you don’t need anyone else counsel or advise for you know the right or wrong to do, based on your upbringing and gift of natural wisdom and intelligence made better only with your own experience.

One of a few people I am sure those who are close to him, family or otherwise, pay attention to what he says and a household name for that matter, sent me a text after reading a blog I posted yesterday on Miguna and the text simply said on what I said to and about Miguna, “You couldn’t be more right. A bright young man suffering from magalomania.”

Miguna knows this individual very well from politics and the individual knows Miguna well enough.

Just the other day, another very senior person in Kenya told me he cannot fathom why Miguna would forget that, but for Raila fighting for months to get him a slot from his half loaf he was dealt when others hoping to did not get anything but are not bitter, Miguna would probably still be known only on these fora while trying without success to be elected MP as many others before him have.

Taking the two together; these two men of wisdom are simply saying to Miguna, first learn to be appreciative and second, please heed to counsel from others, or seek wiser counsel on how to proceed in certain situations, limitless you maybe with your own perfect counsel.

Some of you read posts in one particular forum in which I have as my second signature message, “There is never a wrong time to do the right thing; do not be ashamed or afraid to do the right thing, even when you think it’s the wrong time. Just do it.

The final curtain has not closed on this little saga involving Miguna.If he does the right thing or things from here on, the curtain for Act II of his political life may open.

I hope he gets that message or, at least, the message from the two Wazees I reference above.

Peace, Unity and the Wisdom of Wazee Rules!

Omwenga

[Unedited]

 

Congratulations to Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller For Recapturing Premiership of Jamaica

Let’s all join in congratulating Madam Portia Simpson Miller of Jamaica for recapturing the premiership after being rigged out in 2007 by the then out-of-party Jamaica Labor Party.

Let me also thank those of you who may have sent her party PNP well wishes or contributed to her campaign following a plea I made here in my blog Giving a hand to our friends in Jamaica and I thank you in her behalf.

Preliminary official results showed Simpson Miller’s People’s National Party, or PNP, winning 41 of the 63 parliamentary seats at stake in the national election.

The results gave the Jamaica Labor Party, or JLP, of Prime Minister Andrew Holness just 22 seats.

In other words, Madam Portia Miller and her party have won in a landslide and against stiff odds orchestrated by the entrenched machinery she has been fighting all these years.

As I noted in the blog above,

[i]During PEV and throughout the negotiations led by Dr. Kofi Annan, and even afterwards, many friends of Kenya watched in horror as our country stood at a brink of a civil war and offered to help in any way they could. One such friend is Her Excellency the Hon. Portia Simpson Miller, former Prime Minister of Jamaica.

In fact, Hon. Portia Simpson Miller painfully understood our situation because she had been rigged out of the premiership in her re-election bid and yes, it is possible for the out-of-power party to rig elections and a good case study of that is Jamaica and what happened to Hon. Portia Simpson Miller.

Hon. Miller is one of the most amazing person and leader you’ll ever know and Jamaica would be blessed to have her again as its PM.

Unfortunately, however, Madam Portia Miller and her party are going against an entrenched old money machinery akin to our own Kenyatta and Moi era machinery and needs all the help she and her party can get to close the gap with the forces of status quo arrayed against her progressive party and ideals.

I believe if someone does you a favor, you are obligated to return one to them or someone else in their behalf if and when you are able to, or when called to do so.

I once had a conversation with Madam Miller and can tell you her glowing love for Africa and Kenya in particular almost moved me to tears that a foreigner can love our country that much when we were busy tearing it apart.[/i]

I am sure I speak for many in saying we are all very happy Madam Portia Miller has been elected again as Prime Minister of Jamaica.

If you wish to send her and PNP a congratulatory message, go to PNP Contact Page

Peace, and Unity With The People of Jamaica!

Omwenga

Reuters Reporting on the victory:

Jamaica’s ruling party locked in tight election race

6:31pm EST

Jamaica’s ruling party locked in tight election race (02:03)

By Horace Helps

KINGSTON | Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:15pm EST

(Reuters) – Jamaica’s main opposition party rode a wave of discontent with a bad economy to a big win at the polls on Thursday, in elections that swept former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller back into office.

Preliminary official results showed Simpson Miller’s People’s National Party, or PNP, winning 41 of the 63 parliamentary seats at stake in the national election.

The results gave the Jamaica Labor Party, or JLP, of Prime Minister Andrew Holness just 22 seats.

“The people of Jamaica have spoken,” Holness, 39, told reporters late on Thursday after calling the 66-year-old Simpson Miller to concede defeat.

“I wish the new government well,” he said. “There are challenges that they will face, challenges that we are quite well aware of. And we hope for the benefit of the country and for the interest of the people of Jamaica that they will do a good job,

The center-right JLP is considered slightly more conservative than Simpson Miller’s PNP, which narrowly lost a general election in 2007 after she briefly served as Jamaica’s first female premier.

But there are no major ideological differences between the parties, in a country once notorious for political bloodletting. Analysts have said neither party would have much room for maneuver in office as it deals with a huge debt burden and high unemployment.

Many expect the new government will be forced to implement unpopular austerity measures, including possible layoffs of state workers, in an effort to shore up the economy after it received a $1.27 billion lifeline from the International Monetary Fund last year.

Simpson Miller did not spell out any belt-tightening or other economic measures in a long and rambling victory speech outside her campaign headquarters in the capital, Kingston.

But she has vowed to appeal to the IMF to extend the period Jamaica has to repay any loans, to give the Caribbean island more leeway to jump-start the economy.

Holness took office in October after his predecessor surprisingly resigned.

Although one of the Caribbean’s more developed economies, Jamaica is saddled with a public debt load totaling more than 120 percent of gross domestic product.

That has proved a huge drag on the economy, which is dependent on tourism and has failed to grow over the past four years, sputtering since the JLP took power.

Unemployment has risen to 12.9 percent from 9.8 percent in 2007.

(Writing by Tom Brown; Editing by Peter Cooney)

 

What Lies Ahead for Miguna; Not Exactly Enviable Either Way

The Prime Minister’s office says Miguna Miguna has been cleared to return to work, following the conclusion of disciplinary proceedings against him.

As I noted elsewhere on this blog, the reinstatement of Miguna is further evidence of our continued resolve as a country to embrace fully the rule of law and the PM must be commended for leading us in this direction as he continues to do.

In other words, the reinstatement is not only a good thing for Miguna in as far as his personal situation is concerned, it is also a victory for due process.

It is not clear whether Miguna will return to the PM’s office, however, but whether he returns or not, this episode involving his suspension and subsequent events is intriguing for a number of reasons.

No one was more surprised with the now apparent return of Miguna to the PM’s office than many of the PM’s supporters themselves who had said good riddance when Miguna was suspended and were only awaiting for the PM to finalize the booting.

They have now found out in politics, things are not always that crystal clear as to what the right or wrong move is.

On the other hand, the PM’s enemies and foes are befuddled and confused and don’t know what to make of this move.

Meanwhile, Miguna finds himself in the strange position of now being the potential enemy of those who only recently fell in love with him after hating him for some time simply because he went ballistic with their No. 1 enemy while he may rekindle the friendship lost with many of his old friends who ditched the friendship and even hated him for doing the same thing that made him the darling of Raila’s opponents.

Is it the case of keep your friends close and your enemies even closer?

One from either side of these groups may ask, but I doubt it.

Miguna is sufficiently damaged, mostly from self-inflicted wounds for the PM to be concerned one way or another about whether he is or is not on his side so one cannot say that this is keeping an enemy even closer and for several reasons.

First, even though he has made it known that he has a book in the making which he ostensibly plans to publish in the heat of the campaign and many see this as the reason the PM decided to reinstate Miguna, one cannot say this in by itself could be a compelling reason to return Miguna to the PM’s office.

This is because few will disagree if there is damage Miguna would have done to the PM, he has already done it.

All one has to do, is to watch the K24 interviews with Jeff Koinange and see in each episode, Miguna was not holding back anything he knew; in fact, one can also argue he was neither holding back anything he could manufacture to make the PM look as bad as he could be.

Having done that, one can therefore assume Miguna has let out of his system whatever worse he knew or could concoct about the PM and that therefore any book he may publish is either going to be a repetition of the same or one laced with new “revealing” information which can only be revealing to the extent it could not be imagined at the time of the interviews and since.

Second, even if one were to assume Miguna returns to the PM’s office, he is equally without ammunition the way he was or would have been were he to be reinstated under different circumstances, namely, where he had not emptied the clip on the PM before being reinstated and therefore it could be said he would still be effective as an advisor and therein lies his dilemma:

Will Miguna now start denouncing as untrue everything he said about Raila from the day he was suspended until the day he returns to work or is he going to maintain it was all true?

If the former, namely, it was all not true what he said about Raila, what does that tell you about him and, more importantly, his future prospects as a trusted advisor?

If the latter, namely, if he says all he said was true, why is he going back to work for the same person and, assuming he has a good explanation, what does that say about him and more importantly, where does that leave him with respect to his future prospects as a trusted advisor at the PM’s office?

All these are questions whose answer point to Miguna both being of little value at the PM’s office, at least not anywhere near where he would have been otherwise and equally so to the opposition.

Third, one may make the case it would be more prudent for Miguna not return to the PM’s office and make money attacking Raila and even from his yet to be published book, but that would be unprincipled for Miguna who has otherwise been known to be, all other criticisms and accusations aside, a very principled man.

Opting to make money at the expense of Raila would be akin to a pastor leaving the Church to peddle pornography.

Let’s hope not.

 

Miguna Miguna’s Reinstatement Is Further Evidence of Kenya’s Embracing Rule of Law

Strictly, as a matter of the concept of rule of law, Miguna Miguna’s reinstatement as reported in the news, is something we all should be happy about.

Beyond that, ans especially as a matter of politics, the reinstatement has more to it than meets the eye and I am working on a blog to flush most of that out.

In the meantime, I suppose the question I posed in Is Miguna Miguna the Newt Gingrich of Kenya? has been answered, even though I still hold the view I suggested he would be a much needed addition in Parliament unlike the PM’s office where his role will certainly not be as the highlight of what it was in the past, if anything, because he may be reinstated but the enemies he made there are still there and I doubt they are rolling the red carpet for him.

One would obviously assume whatever role he is cast now, he must and cannot proceed as if the last few months have been erased from people’s minds.

I’ll tactfully and carefully dance around all the sharks ready to take me down with any false move I may be as unfortunate to make.

It’s “Yes, Sir, No, Maam” until the waters clear of the sharks.

Otherwise, the curtains must roll for Act III and the final scene which may be the most anticlimactic of all.

The question of the hour is, we know MM is returning to at least the PM’s office where he no doubt has the sharks I have alluded to above; what about out here and elsewhere? Is MM returning to the unprecedented state of being hated again by his former hater-cum-converts to admirers and now friends but immediately preceding enemies?

Who needs Pepto Bismol with MM’s reinstatement?

I bet neither.

He has neutralized himself as he has given fodder to both camps no matter what he does.

In other words, this is more about containment than victory for whatever he went against wise counsel to keep mum and resurface at the appropriate time.

On the other hand, this is what makes politics an exciting game for political junkies like your truly.

To be continued.

Peace, Unity and Happy Miguna Is Reinstated

Omwenga

 

Is Kenya Ready for Muslim President?

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and/or is enjoying the holidays.

I am on vacation and all my communication devices are held in quarantine from me unless I beg and am given permission from my kids to check and reply to important emails but have had a few minutes to read an exchange between and among several bloggers on Kenya forum discussing the purported presidential candidacy of Hon. Abdurkadir Mohamed, MP for Mandera and chimed in my views which I share here as well.

Addressing the combatants, I noted the following:.

In sum, all of you have jumped the gun.

While it is perfectly normal and, indeed, common for anyone to declare an interest in running for the presidency, including those everyone knows are a joke, I would not start asking the deeper philosophical and practical question whether being a Muslim is or is not helpful in running for president in Kenya.

As an analyst, I try to start my analysis on simple questions and leave the harder questions to tackle at the appropriate time.

At this juncture, there are several things I would like to know and evaluate before reaching my conclusions as whether Hon. Abdikadir Mohamed is a viable candidate:

First, I would like to know which party has nominated him or will nominate him and whether that party is in full compliance with the Political Parties Act of 2011. If he has not been nominated, I would like to know who else seeks the nomination from that party and what prospects he has of winning the nomination. If the MP is nominated by a brief-case party that stands no chance of being cleared by IEBC to run, that’s the end of my inquiry and whether or not Abdikadir is a Christian or Muslim or neither is irrelevant.

Second, if Abdikadir is nominated, then the next thing I would like to know is what system does he have in place or could have in place to harvest votes across the country to meet the constitutional requirement of 50% +1 of votes cast and carrying at least 24 counties in the country. This is another way of saying is Mr. Abdikadir a traditional candidate or one like others I have heard saying they have some magic to win the presidency rather than going through the traditional means other than strict adherence to tribalism, which I am on record saying we may finally break free from in 2012, if Raila wins the presidency with his 47-County vote harvesting strategy and I am not here saying no other candidate can achieve this; just that of all those running, he is the one I am most confident he will.

Third, if the MP does not have a system in place to harvest votes across the country or if the MP is pursuing a non-traditional path to the presidency, then I would seriously want to know whether he is a front for other interests, separate and part from the question of whether he is vying under a serious party in which case I would like to know what those interests are and whether they are good for the country. If my conclusion is the MP is a front and is vying at the behest of others whose interests are divisive or otherwise not good for the country, that’s the end of my inquiry and would not support him on that ground alone and it would not matter whether he is a Christian or Muslim or even an atheist.

Fourth, if Abdikadir is nominated by a serious party, is not a front for anyone, and shows me he has the system in place to harvest votes across the country, then I would like to know the MP stacks up against the rest of the field in leadership qualities, utilizing the criteria I have articulated in my blog The Minimum Qualities, Attributes and Skills Our Next President In Kenya Must Possess. One of the qualities I have noted in my suggested QAS, is religion.

It does not matter to me what religion one belongs to but I do vehemently oppose having a sworn or declared atheist from being elected as president for reasons I have previously stated in my many blogs on this subject.

Applying this simple analysis for everyone would help avoid premature discussion of volatile issues we can debate until we all go blue or whatever unnatural color brought about by such exercise in futility because the truth is, nobody knows to what extent are Kenyans ready to elect a Muslim as our president.

If a Muslim candidate emerges and convinces the country sufficiently to be elected president in accordance to our constitution, we should all rally behind him or her and help him govern much like anyone else.

Fifth, a country only has one leader at the top and for this reason alone, there are many reasons why who is elected to that office must be evaluated differently than who is elected or appointed to less important offices and even those who seek that office, must respect that fact and not necessarily put themselves out there as candidates merely because they meet the constitutional requirements to run for the office.

There are many jokers who say they are interested in the office and let me not mention names even though I am thinking about the likes of Bifwoli but they will be the first ones to tell you they are not serious, if they were to be honest.

Others are serious but have never even read the relevant provisions of the constitution to determine whether they, in fact, qualify to run.

There is a reason why everyone who qualifies to run for president do not.

Finally, but not least, let’s be smart about how we debate these issues.

A key in healthy debate, is starting from a premise worth debating.

What I see here, is a false premise that Abdikadir is running for president when even he himself has not publicly stated so.

If and when he does, let’s analyze his presidential run as I have outlined above.

If and when he runs, there shall be many questions he will have to answer, including how as a Muslim, he will reconcile leading a nation that is so heavily Christian or non-Muslim more in the same vein I or anyone else would have to justify to voters in a heavily Muslim or non-Christian country that I can lead them despite my being a Christian.

Citing the constitution, i.e., saying I’ll rule in accordance to the constitution is not an option for reasons I don’t have to get into, not the least of which is it’s acceptable naivete that a true leader always governs within the four corners of the law–that’s a myth I’ll expose some day.

Peace, Unity and I Have Nothing Against the Muslim Religion

Omwenga

 

This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

This is it.

In his dying days, Michael Jackson (MJ) had a vision, and was actually working on it. He aptly named it “This Is It.”

MJ was to do tour like no other and finally leave the stage while at the top.

Well, unbeknownst to him, the tour would never come to fruition as his days on earth were counting faster than he could do the show.

This Is It, may also be an apt name for the show three of our politicians are about to perform:

The Rt. Honorable Raila Amolo Odinga (Raila or RAO), son of Jaramogi, is set to run for the third and likely final time as presidential candidate.

The Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta (UK), is likely to run for the second and final time.

Hon. Wiliam Samoei Ruto, is likely to kiss his political career goodbye for at least several years, unless he plays his cards right.

Each of these politicians has a must do to survive politically in 2012 but their fortunes and misfortunes are different from one another, even though there are some parallels.

By all accounts, Raila remains the most popular politician in the country and his party, ODM, remains the most organized and active across the country.

However, this by no means he has the presidency all but sealed and delivered; quite the contrary, he has his work cut out for him, especially given everyone else is basically trying to go for his jugular.

The main challenge ahead for Raila, is containing or minimizing what damage Ruto’s departure brings to his fate.

Having survived the initial onslaught from Ruto with what some of his then allies conceded later were lies and distortions designed and perpetuated by Ruto in efforts to topple Raila, and especially having survived the greatest days of uncertainty in this onslaught when Kibaki seemed to cozy up with Ruto, one can say Raila has survived the worst of his fall-out with Ruto.

The question now for him is can he turn the fall-out into an advantage and given how things have started to turn around for Raila in Rift Valley—not by accident but by his own efforts, it is Ruto who now finds himself in the precarious and unenviable position of nearly becoming politically irrelevant.

The latest reports show growing opposition to Ruto in RV, even from within UDM, the party Ruto illegally took over, according to its former Chairman, General (Rtd.) Koech who is in court in efforts to stop what he and others say is an illegal takeover.

The irony of it is, Ruto may fight so hard to wrestle control of this party from Koech and succeed in doing so, only to face even more defined rebellion from within, splintering the party to the point of irrelevancy or the party itself may nominate someone else than Ruto it deems better suited to vie for the presidency.

Raila cannot be but happy with how fortunes have turned against Ruto and this is to say nothing about ICC, which in the end could be the proverbial last nail on Ruto’s political coffin but I doubt as I have argued before Ruto is not likely to be convicted, based on my own legal analysis of the case.

Were Ruto to be smart about all of this, he would swallow his pride and not let his ego drive him into political irrelevancy by making amends with Raila and returning to ODM.

Time is running out on him to make any move to return to ODM, however.

The more Raila makes gains in RV, the less relevant Ruto becomes and soon it would be past a point even Raila could care to have him on board.

UK on the other hand, is an interesting politician.

The man is a victim of his own upringing.

As a privileged child and son of our first president, UK has never had to fight for anything.

Everything has always been presented to him on a silver platter.

Unfortunately, however, the presidency cannot be something to be presented on a silver platter.

Former president Daniel arap Moi attempted to present the presidency to UK on a silver platter but Kenyans led by Raila wisely rejected the move.

Being the son of our first president is only second worse to being a Kikuyu running for president in 2012.

Nothing turns people’s stomachs, including many Kikuyus themselves than the idea of another Kikuyu presidency; not again, at least not this soon.

In sum, it’s Raila and Ruto, not UK who must make a performance of their lives, come 2012.

Raila has the edge, though.

The serious politician he is, he is also blessed with endless vitenda wilis much as entertaining as MJ’s This Is It.

Peace, Unity and This Is It for Raila, UK and Ruto

Omwenga

 

Noose Is Tighetening On Ruto; Countdown To My Last Plea To Him

This is a blog I posted at a Kenyan board a few days ago but am migrating it here for archival purposes. Please treat as read if you read the other one…

I don’t by any means mean the ICC noose but the noose on Ruto’s political life in Kenya which, if doesn’t heed my counsel I have repeatedly given him to make amends with Raila and return to ODM as urged in my five part series on him on this blog, Ruto will be all but be politically dead-at least for five years.

I have maintained from the very beginning and after a complete legal analysis of Ruto’s case in http://omwenga.com/2011/04/07/who-is-william-ruto-part-v/ that Ruto will walk from the Hague and that none of the Ocampo Six will ever see the inside of jail for these crimes they are alleged to have committed.

I have said recently that I have yet to pen my final part on Ruto in which I offer my final plea for him to return to ODM as his only way to save his political life–and yes this despite everyone’s believe his ego is too large to do that, but political prudence sometimes demands that one forgets about his ego or swallows his pride for long term survival and this may be just the case for Ruto.

The writing is on the wall for his impending political doom unless he reverses course and returns to ODM.

Case in point, consider this: It is actually possible Ruto cannot even get the nomination to be the flag-bearer for UDM, the party he claims to be his now. Why? Because he is about to have a taste of his own medicine and even more devastatingly so courtesy of a growing rebellion within the party he now claims to own.

That’s his problem No. 1.

He cannot play second fiddle to anyone, including UK.

That’s his problem No. 2

“Kalenjins have realised the falsehoods Ruto used to spread about Raila were not about the community, but himself,” says General Koech the Chairman of UDM in my view, even though Ruto claims to have ousted him.

That’s his problem No. 3.

The Standard http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/InsidePage.php?id=2000048489&cid=4 says “All is not well in Ruto Camp” and details why, which is basically scratching the surface.

That’s his problem No. 4

Raila and ODM are steadily regaining ground in RV.

That’s his problem No. 5.

I can go on but you get my drift.

ICC aside–which in my analysis is a non-issue and, incidentally, in the unlikely event my analysis on it is wrong and Ruto is, in fact, snagged by ICC, more so the reason he should hurry up and return to ODM–in any case, ICC aside, given the foregoing, and other considerations he obviously knows, Ruto is better off returning to ODM than going full-speed with blinds on towards a cliff.

 

Ruto’s Continued Clinging To ODM IS Disingenuous and Highly Dishonest

I posted the following comment at another forum several of my readers there have asked me to post it here for easy reference so here we go:

Christine,

I agree with you Ruto’s refusal to resign from ODM and seek fresh mandate from Eldoret North voters is utter dishonesty of the highest order.

The problem is not that Ruto cannot be re-elected as MP, he can, even though he will have a stiff challenge.

That’s not his problem; the problem and the reason he has not left is, all ODM MPs allied to him will be equally forced to resign and more than half of them will not see the inside of Parliament again other than perhaps securing work as aides and even then they may not even qualify to be considered.

Yet, you see him chest-thumbing on how great and influential he is in RV.

He is not.

It’ll be a miracle if he delivers even more than 50% of his own constituency, let alone the entire region where at best he may deliver 40% and the rest remains loyal to ODM, give or take 5 or so for other losing candidates.

That’s all Raila needs to win in a landslide and on the first ballot.

Peace, Unity and Ruto Will Be Politically Irrelevant Soon If He Does Not Rethink.

Omwenga

 

Is Miguna Miguna the Newt Gingrich of Kenya?

I cannot say MM is a friend at the level, say, OO, would be but I have read him and known him for a long time and have even interacted privately with him on matters ODM when he was at the PM’s office.

I have largely stayed away from discussions about MM and intend to do just that other than what I have posted on my two blogs on him, Miguna Maybe Hurting But He Is Being Disingenuous As To Raila and Miguna Has Made Serious A Serious Allegation Let The Police Investigate.

I pose the question I do here, though, not in any way as a negative thing but as a positive opportunity to explore an even deeper question and that is, what role does an obviously brilliant man with hardly any break system between what he thinks and what he says has to play in a political system where there is a correlation between what you say and your political fortunes such that when its good, you are rewarded and punished when it’s not.

This is the question I would like us to explore in the context of comparing and contrasting MM to Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the United States Congress, and now one of those seeking nomination by the Republican party to challenge President Obama.

The underlying presumption in this question is, not matter how brilliant one is, not everything that’s going to flow from his or her lips is going to be brilliant.

No scientific study has been done to confirm this but just take my word for it or if not, take your own word for they are the same.

For those of you not in the US or do not follow US politics, a bit of a background on Newt Gingrich:

As noted above, Newt is the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives who is now running for president.

He is an historian by training and no one questions the fact he has a brilliant mind.

So brilliant, he devised a plan for Republicans to become a majority party in the House of Representatives and when the plan was executed in 1994, the Republicans led by Newt were able to wrestle majority control of the House from Democrats who had had it and therefore controlled the legislative process for more than 40 years until Newt and his crew booted them in 1994.

Riding mighty and high on this outstanding accomplishment, Newt forgot he was mortal and soon started treating everyone even then President Clinton as though they were irrelevant when, in fact, the were: he was only head of one of the three branches of government.

The list of things he was saying, many of them outright mean, is long to even summarize but the cleverer and even more brilliant Clinton is, he counter-engineered a strategy to remove the Republicans using Newt himself as the whipping boy and the strategy succeeded as Republicans lost miserably in the next elections of 1998, forcing the very same Republicans to seek an ouster of Newt as Speaker and replace him with someone less arrogant and abrasive (their words).

Rather than face defeat by his own Republicans in a bid for second term as Speaker, Newt resigned from congress soon after the elections of 1998 and went on to quietly feed from the hands of the very organizations to this day he publicly condemns as evil and has even called for the arrest and imprisonment of their senior officers for mismanagement—all the while collecting hefty consulting fees from them, mind you.

Fast forward to currently, the Republicans are in perhaps the worst nomination process for someone to challenge Obama for none of all of the candidates who have thrown their names in the hat impresses the Republican primary voters.

The one candidate who can actually beat Obama in the general election is Mitt Romney, who Evangelicals, a critical portion of the primary voters, hate simply because he is a Mormon.

As a result, there has now been and continues to be the quest to nominate a “Mitt alternative” and several individuals have held that spot as they rise up in the polls, only to crush and burn a few weeks later for one reason or another.

Newt is currently holding this political death trap that no one has escaped alive since the phenomena emerged a few months ago but, just as his predecessors, Newt is about to crush and burn, courtesy of his past and present and especially his inability to control what falls out of his lips.

He was interviewed over the weekend and said judges who do not rule according to Congress’ understanding of the law should be asked to come to Congress to testify why and if they refuse to come, US marshals should be dispatched to arrest and drag them to the August house a dimwitted answer but Newt was talking to the Right Wing nuts who vote in the Republican primary forgetting everyone else was listening.

That’s Newt for you.

MM needs no introduction.

How do these two compare, given the Newt background I have shared?

They are obviously both brilliant.

They both speak without regard to what impact what they say has.

They both obviously enjoy speaking their minds.

They both can say brilliant things in so speaking their minds.

They both can also say things that leave one wondering what the heck!

They both have been accused of being abrasive and arrogant.

Those who know them personally say they are as warm and fuzzy as a toy teddy bear made of the finest wool.

Given all of this, what role should someone like either play in politics?

My take on it is very simple:

Republicans should nominate Newt as their nominee to challenge Obama; he’ll be a dream candidate for Obama to floor come next year compared to the alternative they are desperate to replace, Mitt, who, in my view, will likely defeat Obama, unless there is an Independent candidate who runs or unless the Evangelicals stay home in which case Obama will floor Mitt, too.

As for our friend MM, let me quote myself in what I have already said in my blog above posted soon after he was suspended:

Open quote:

If Miguna does not prevail, in other words, if he is ultimately permanently terminated (he is now under suspension without pay) Miguna will join the long list of of once Raila supporters but now anti-Railaists such as the fellow I mention above and the many we know in these fora who endlessly rant and rail on how horrible and bad Raila is, simply because they have a personal ax to grind against him, not disagreement on policy or anything close.

Quite frankly, my wish is, it is the former and not the latter outcome for Miguna.

The last thing I would wish to see here or anywhere else, however, is Miguna bashing Raila.

I can see he has already started doing this but that’s neither pretty nor necessary, no matter the outcome.

Loyalty and friendship demand nothing less.

I do believe this is also an opportunity for Miguna to re-examine and re-evaluate where things went wrong and adjust accordingly and if he does so, I am sure his contribution in the political discourse and engagement in Kenya has yet to hit high gear.

Conversely, if he does not and stays on the course he is on, and especially where bashing Raila continues to be a part of it, Miguna would likely write and shout himself out of any continued relevance in the political discourse and dispensation in Kenya.

That would be tragic, indeed, for a man who has shown so much stamina and audacity.

As I have communicated to him privately, in calamity, there is greatness that can be revealed only by the greatest.

On the other hand, the average succumb in calamity, to even lower depths for their lack of foresight and ability to remain calm, even as they weather the storm, which they can, if applying themselves accordingly.

The difference is often one about character.

The stronger emerge even stronger, the meek, even weaker.

What shall it be in Miguna’s case?

Only time will tell but he has a lot to do with that but, as I have noted above, he is needs to correct course quickly and plot a new survival strategy as he must and I would not burn bridges with anyone no matter how tempting for that may be the very bridge to a new future.

The point: Miguna should start making amends with Raila by at least not hurling any more nasty stuff as he already done and gather enough strength and offer an apology to Raila who, purely from a political analyst point of view, has done the right thing for himself, his office, the party, and ultimately the country as all these decisions have a bearing and impact on his presidential ambitions.

Miguna himself will make the same call, were he in Raila’s shoes.

And so will each one of those crying foul.

It’s called the politics of survival.

Those in it must always be on a look-out not to become casualties.

If they are unable to and find themselves under the bus, they have no one other than themselves to blame.

I never buy this foul cry that anyone has thrown anyone under the bus: the people have thrown themselves under the bus or train or whatever moving vehicle.

This is the lesson all aspiring political players should and must learn.

The arrogant and tough talking Alexander Haig, former US Secretary of State, found this the hard way after essentially declaring himself president when then President Ronald Reagan was being treated for gunshot wounds, only to find out his old pal Reagan did not find any of this declaration amusing when told about it and a result, Reagan distanced himself from Haig and ultimately showed him the door.

End quote.

Would Parliament not be a livelier place to have MM among its intellectual leaders?

He certainly will provide a balance, if not a contrast to Hon. Bifwoli Wakoli and I am sure just by being there, MM will inspire great debate for many would want to make a name for challenging him.

As always, I wish him well.

Peace, Unity and Progress

Omwenga

 

Violence and Crime Cannot Be Entirely Blamed On High Youth Unemployment

A netter recently presented an hypothetical narrative in which a university graduate ends up as an Al Shabaab or Mungiki recruit because he could not find a job for a long time and his efforts to even start a jua kali life saver business fails to take off because he cannot get KEBS certification now required of all those making or selling these gadgets due to bureaucratic delays and/or corruption.

I have decided to explore this hypothesis further and in so doing, I offer my views on this serious and urgent issue that must be addressed even more aggressively and that is youth unemployment and crime, thus:

I don’t know if this has been asked of a real recruit but, the one who joins Al Shabaab or Mungiki in this hypothetical; how does he answer the question he is or will be maiming or killing innocent people who have nothing to do with his misery?

Next, how does he answer the question once they join, it’s only a matter of a short time before they are caught or killed whether they have even had a chance to kill or maim such that his “freedom” from misery at the expense of innocent people is short-lived and therefore not worth it?

Finally, but not least, how does he answer the question it is noble rather than offering to kill or maim the innocent, to simply commit suicide?

I ask these questions because if they are university educated as in this hypothetical or simply not mentally ill, joining either of these groups knowing fully the end is to maim, kill or be killed, I have no sympathy for them once they cross that line and make that conscious decision to join.

They deserve the fate that befalls them from that point on which is inevitably death, especially given even more resolute efforts by the government to root out these murderous groups.

I do have great sympathy and we all should for them before they cross the line and go there but there are several distinctions to note about this pre-Al Shabaab or and Mungiki phase:

Imagine you are at the admission desk for either Al Shabaab or Mungiki and the young man is standing there in front of you and you ask him what led him to come; what do you think he will say?

The netter narrated one answer in his hypothesis as above, namely, that the graduate is without a job, destitute and without even the hope to start a jua kali business because of corruption and red tape.

My take on it is there is more to that answer which goes beyond the question of economics into the question of violence and the propensity to commit violence in the first place.

In other words, and this is really my proposition, individuals who are willing and/or end up committing violence, especially in killing innocent people, have a predisposed violent mind which makes them readily inclined, and find it attractive to commit or to be recruited to commit violence.

Lack of economic opportunity is not the primary reason even though it can be offered as an excuse in their warped minds.

Were the opposite to be true, every poor person or those otherwise unable to find jobs would be trooping to all sorts of murderous outfits across the globe and the world will be finished as we know it.

The true answer the young man standing in front of you at the Al Shabaab or Mungiki desk as to why he is there is therefore “I want to kill someone.”

He can tell you the true story about how he physically ended up there, including the inability to get a job and being frustrated or unable to get KEBS certification but that’s simply an excuse to pursue his true passion and that is to kill.

For every one like him unable to find a job and being unable to find a means to make a living, there are thousands who went the other direction opposite the road to kill and maim and intentionally so as him.

As I have noted above, once this young man goes beyond the recruiting point and actually joins any of these murderous groups, I have no sympathy for him and what fate he meets and one would hope he is caught or eliminated before he actually kills or maims.

The solution for this type of person lies in not creating economic opportunity, but going to the root cause of it and that is, upbringing.

Children who grow up in an environment where love and peace is not preached and practiced but instead hate and intolerance is, or have bent anger from all sorts of directions from early on in life will invariably ultimately seek violence as the ultimate solution to their misery.

I would therefore recommend intervention in terms of education about conflict resolution and by that I mean both internalized and externalized conflicts, some of which can be cultural while others are intrinsic to the individual.

This is just my raw thought on this and therefore I can’t cite for you any scientific basis for it other than my own surmise based on my own observations and thinking about this.

I will in time explore this suggestion even further in terms of a specific proposal as to how this can be implemented but that’s to come at some point, I hope.

I distinguish this young man, the graduate who ends up being an Al-Shabaab or Mungiki recruit from the rest of the criminals who I may or may not sympathize with or advocate for helping them, depending on a number of factors which go to the core is of criminality and having a criminal mind.

There is no question there is a high correlation between unemployment and criminal behavior but unemployment itself does not account for all criminal behavior.

Indeed, it was in recognition of this fact that the Grand Coalition proposed and implemented through Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s office, the Kazi Kwa Vijana programme (KKV).

In launching the project, the PM said the following:

“I am pleased to write on the Kazi KwaVijana (KKV) programme, an initiative of the Grand Coalition Government to tackle the twin problems of hunger and unemployment. The KKV programme is designed to afford, during this period of global financial crisis, national drought and famine, immediate relief to young people by way of providing them with income to buy food through employment in public works. Young people, male and female, are to be employed under labour contracts in selected public works projects identified under the KKV programme. Some of these projects, particularly those to do with irrigation and water supply, are intended to enhance food production in the marginal areas most affected by drought. There are also KKV projects designed for the conservation and management of the environment while others will improve road transportation in rural and urban areas”

Following recent allegations of corruption involving Phase I of KKV (KKV I) that turned out to be false, the PM provided a detailed statement to Parliament in which he said, among other things, that KKV I was as stated in remarks launching the project, an emergency stimulus intervention, designed to provide a social safety net for young Kenyans at risk of hunger and starvation which was implemented by six ministries with the PM’s office providing overall supervision of the programme while Office of the President, and Ministries of Finance and Planning provided support services on the monitoring and coordination aspects.

According the PM and citing a report issued by the International Labor Organization (ILO), the number of youth engaged under KKV I actually exceeded the original target by more than 10 per cent. All in all, the Government contributed Kshs.2.8bn to KKV I in the financial year 2008/2009, and Kshs.4.3bn in the financial year 2009/2010.

The PM then went on to account for all expenditures on the project, concluding that just only 4.8% of the total funds for the project were spent on “ineligible” activities according to the World Bank guidelines, but that only meant that government, not the World Bank, should have paid for those expenses.

The PM did acknowledge that a payment of Kshs.1,221,000 was made as a top-up allowance to a civil servant in active service and on the Government’s payroll but promised that the funds will be recovered from the officer concerned as appropriate, to avoid double payment.

“I do not condone any kind of corruption or misuse of funds,” said the Prime Minister while noting that KKV I was a success.

As to the current status of KKV, the PM categorically disproved the allegation that Kshs.4.3bn or US$43 million for Component I of the KKV II Kenya Youth Empowerment Programme was lost because the project was cancelled.

“The Kshs. 4.3bn has not been lost,” said the Prime Minister, adding, “the project is alive and will continue to be implemented.”

The PM promised that he will ensure that any weaknesses that might remain in the programme shall be corrected and the government “will move resolutely forward with our plans to empower young Kenyans.”

That’s precisely what needs to happen but it does not mean an end to criminality when it does; it simply means we shall have less of it and in manageable proportions we can live with without living in fear of being attacked or robbed every day, everywhere and anywhere in the country.

On the other hand, violence will likely continue to be a part of a large segment of our society whether economic conditions improve or not due to historical and cultural reasons that must be addressed urgently by way of implementing a number of proposals aimed at basically deprogramming those prone to be violence while ensuring that today’s young and those in formative stage are indoctrinated to believe a handshake or hug, not fist is the solution to conflict.

As for those KKV may not reach, an outreach to at least educate and inform them even about some of the questions and consequences I have raised above for the hypothetical graduate Al-Shabaab or Mungiki recruit would go a long way before a job does.

Otherwise even more violence and widespread criminality will become a fixture in our lives more than it is today and that is simply unacceptable, given we have the resources to prevent us from getting there.

At the same time, we must accept the reality no society is violence or crime free; it’s all a matter of degree of opportunity and acceptance.

When HIV and AIDS pandemic hit Kenya, some were said to wish for less deadly STDs like herpes and so on.

Kenyans as a whole would prefer criminality of the old days that primarily involved petty offenses and when it occurred primarily in the cities not in suburbs and residences and certainly not at the rate and devastation it does these days.

That day will come sooner than later and how Kenyans vote in 2012 will certainly have a bearing on that happening.

Peace, Unity and Progress

Omwenga