2nd Update: Why It’s Wrong For Chief Justice To Attend Miguna Book Launch

Supreme Court of Kenya

I have received comments and even read elsewhere in other Kenyan fora people saying there is nothing wrong with the Chief Justice being a guest of honor for Miguna in his book launch.

Those taking this view argue that the Chief Justice has the right to freely associate and so does Miguna, which is true but they are all missing the point.

The constitution which guarantees us all freedom to associate also prescribes State Officers from so freely associating, otherwise, we might as well accept the argument it would be proper for our Chief Officers to freely associate with prostitutes or engage in drunken stupors and so on.

The fact is, there are certain things our public officers, especially at the level of Chief Justice must not engage in as they otherwise would if they were not state officers.

The relevant part of Chapter Six states as follows with respect to State Officers of which the Chief Justice is one:

75. (1) A State officer shall behave, whether in public and official
life, in private life, or in association with other persons, in a manner
that avoids—
(a) any conflict between personal interests and public or official
duties;
(b) compromising any public or official interest in favour of a
personal interest; or
(c) demeaning the office the officer holds.

Can a case be made that the CJ’s obligation to his personal friend to attend this function is in conflict with his role as Chief Justice?

Can a case be made that by attending the book launch of a personal friend and author of a book that has been touted as the mother of all punches to knock Raila out of the presidential run puts the Chief Justice in a compromised position?

Can a case be made that Dr. Willy Mutunga’s attending the book launch demeans the office of Chief Justice?

These are questions that must be asked and answered [i]objectively[/i], not with emotions and how one answers them cannot be and must not be seen from their partisan perspective for some times we all must rise above politics and see things from the perspective of what is good for our country as a whole.

A simple test to determine this is simply asking oneself is this something that brings us together as a nation or one that divides for surely there must be something we all as Kenyans must agree to see the same way otherwise we are doomed.

Politicians must ask themselves the same question ditto for State Officers but the Chief Justice, the President/PM more so than everyone else and were the Chief Justice to ask himself is what he contemplates to do something that brings us together as a nation or one that divides us, he would obviously have to agree it’s the latter and not the former which means he shouldn’t engage in such conduct for the sake of the office he holds.

Conversely, if the Chief Justice thumbs his nose on everyone asking him not to attend this event and goes ahead with it, then he has to know this will not be without consequence even if that is merely the creation of doubt in people’s minds that his judgment is wanting and that cannot be anything worth the risk.

Another way to look at this is even more simpler: If you don’t want to be part of a controversy, stay away from it.

Miguna is obviously a controversial figure and for the Chief Justice to dive in and join him in the controversy says more about the Chief Justice than it does about Miguna who has done nothing wrong to invite him to be the guest of honor in his book launch; all of us would do the same thing, but not all of us would readily accept the invitation for some of us are of the view doing so is inappropriate and contrary to Chapter Six of our constitution.

 

Why Its Wrong For Chief Justice Willy Mutunga To Attend Miguna Miguna’s Book Launch: An Update

Supreme Court of Kenya

I have it from an impeccable source that several judicial colleagues of the Chief Justice have actually asked him not to attend the event but, according to my source, the CJ “has his own mind,” which basically means to me his mind is made up and he’s blowing everybody off on this and that would be very, very unfortunate, if it’s, in fact, the case.

My take on this is, let those who care about judicial reforms and establishing and maintaining high integrity as in the spirit of the new political dispensation and freedom continue to put pressure on the Chief Justice by visiting the Supreme Court website and simply sending a message the Chief Justice should not attend Miguna’s book launch as it would bring disrepute to not only the Supreme Court, but the entire judiciary.

As noted in the blog, first, let’s all remove our partisan hats and look at this as a Kenyan, not political issue.

Would you like to have someone as our Chief Justice entrusted with the critical responsibility to lead our judiciary in a new direction of reform to be embroiled in defending the appropriateness of attending some nondescript book by a friend who has clearly staked his position relative to Raila in the presidential race?

What does that say about our Chief Justice and his ability to be fair and impartial, let alone his ability to effectively lead the judiciary if he is deliberately thumbing his nose at his colleagues who are urging him not to attend the Miguna book launch for fear and rightly so that such high profile gesture would forever cast a shadow over the CJ and the entire judiciary?

Is there any doubt in anyone’s mind who critically thinks about this that people would rightly and easily start to entertain the notions that the CJ is on to the wrong track in how he is handling himself vz the demands of that office in taking the judiciary in a new, reformed direction?

When the CJ visited Moi soon after his being sworn, there was almost no reaction from anyone save for some of us due to willful suspension of disbelief because most people were simply still awash with the aura and happiness of having gotten rid of the top echelon of the judiciary and infused new blood in the system and many even simply overlooked the very bad reason given as an explanation by the CJ.

Having come from outside the judiciary to take a seat at the highest possible place in the judiciary and let alone leading it, the CJ has an extraordinary expectation and requirement that he treads rather very carefully both in how he manages the judicial affairs as well as how he relates to his colleagues throughout the judiciary such that he does not give any of them reason to thwart his efforts to reform the system, which they can.

Ignoring those from the bench who have asked him not to attend this book launch by essentially a disgruntled former employee of the PM’s office or even ignoring those who have not yet asked him not to but would if they had the opportunity to is not exactly the way to go in light of this delicate tread the CJ must carefully tread on.

I could go on but you get the drift so just log on to the Supreme Court website and let your voice be heard in opposition to this troubling decision by the Chief Justice that has nothing to do with what he should be honed in and exclusively so and that is, guiding the judiciary in these critical phase of its new life.

Again, in the larger scheme of things, the Chief Justice thumbing his nose on his colleagues and attending a nondescript event like this other than the excitement its eliciting among those who can’t stand Raila may look trivial, but the real tragedy shall be in the amount of judicial capital and goodwill the Chief Justice would have lost at the time he needs every bit of it to bring about the necessary reforms at judiciary.

That’s no small price for all of us to pay but the Chief Justice has it still within him to save himself and ultimately all of us the loss.

 

US Supreme Court Upholds President Obama’s Signature Healthcare Legislation

A supporter touts Obamacare at US Supreme Court

In an historic decision issued just a few minutes ago, the US Supreme Court upheld President Barrack Obama’s key legislative accomplishment and that is the health care law that ensures health coverage for all Americans, especially the poor and elderly who were previously without means to get health coverage.

The number of people who were previously without insurance coverage but will now benefit from this law is estimated to be about 50 million people.

Obama having the law passed in the first place was historic in that all presidents before him had tried to pass similar law but failed.

The Supreme Court decision itself is historic because a conservative Justice appointed by a Republican president (Bush) joined the four liberals of the court to deliver the victorious decision for Obama and Democrats who were all gloomy leading up to the decision day as they were poised to be humiliated with a decision tossing out the law as many were expecting the reliably conservative court to deliver.

Fortunately for Obama, Democrats and most Americans, justice and fairness to all has prevailed in the court upholding this important and signature piece of legislation Obama will be remembered for in infinity.

With this vindication, Obama may now be on a cruise to a second term as POUSA.

Congratulations, Mr. President!

 

Why Its Wrong For Chief Justice Willy Mutunga To Attend Miguna Miguna’s Book Launch

Supreme Court of Kenya

According to the Standard, Chief Justice Willy Mutunga is scheduled to appear as guest of honor in the launching of the controversial Miguna Miguna’s book on July 14, 2012.

Regardless of where anyone stands on the political divide in Kenya or who they support in the Kibaki succession politics, all Kenyans must be united in loudly telling Chief Justice Mutunga that being a guest of honor in this book launch for Miguna is wrong.

There are many reasons why this is so but one is sufficient in by itself to have the Chief Justice rethink, if he is committed to attending this event, and that is, gracing the event is not worth the honor and dignity by the person holding the high office he does.

This is because even though theoretically a co-equal branch of government with the legislative and executive branches under the new political dispensation, we have a greater expectation and requirement that our Chief Justice be at all times above politics.

This expectation and requirement does not mean that our Chief Justice must be politically aloof or blind to the goings on politically; quite the contrary, he or she must remain informed about the politics of the day lest he or she will not effectively and fairly execute the full responsibilities of the office.

It also doesn’t mean that the holder of that office cannot express themselves politically outside of their official role if they must but it does mean if they do so it must be done such that it does not evince bias or a tainted judicial mind, let alone even the appearance of impropriety.

That is also not to say the Chief Justice cannot allow politics to creep into his judicial philosophy, if it hasn’t already.

However, the reason we insist on having only the best among those with sterling credentials and reputation to serve as Chief Justice is because there is an expectation that individuals like that would and must separate themselves from the politics of the day and instead draw from their judicial prowess, if any, knowledge of the law or wisdom and judiciously and fairly apply the law to the facts and render the right verdict on any given issue.

In other words, our Chief Justice and the rest of the judiciary for that matter must always avoid political controversies unless in the context of rendering an opinion in resolving an issue at hand.

Indeed, in countries such as the United States, the highest court of the land there has long held and, it is in fact, the case that courts must stay away from deciding “political questions,” which means staying away from deciding issues that are strictly political in nature and are best resolved by the legislative and executive branches of the government, not the courts.

Given the judiciary in Kenya has been nothing but an extension of the presidency for decades until now, we are nonetheless a long way from reaching a point where the courts can leave it up to the legislature and executive branches to resolve issues because they are too political.

This is more so the reason why the Chief Justice and the rest of the court must remain above politics even when considering questions that are political in nature.

There cannot be a more flagrant violation of this principle than what the Chief Justice is poised to do and that is being the guest of honor for Miguna in the launching of his book.

In fact, this whole thing sounds like a bad joke or publicity stunt neither the Chief Justice nor anyone serious can possibly wish to be a part of.

This is because after being unceremoniously booted from the Prime Minister’s office as an advisor on coalition affairs, Miguna Miguna promised the world he has an ax to grind by way of a book he now plans to launch in the next two weeks or so.

There is nothing wrong about that at all; Miguna has a right like anyone else to publish anything he wishes to, provided it’s not slanderous or otherwise in violation of the law.

What is wrong is for the Chief Justice to grace his book launch with his presence, which is not merely Dr. Mutunga who is going to be in attendance, but the office he represents and that is the Supreme Court of Kenya.

There is not a single plausible reason the Chief Justice can advance worth exposing his own judgment and the office he holds to ridicule and condemnation in this manner.

Not one and if it is as it’s been advanced by others that it’s because the Chief Justice is good friends with Miguna whose friendship goes back to his post-graduate studies, that may be a great reason to join Miguna in a private party to celebrate the launch of his book but not to be the guest of honor at the official launch of the book with all its implications and impressions created rightly or misconstrued by having a person of his stature at such an event.

While the Chief Justice cannot advance a plausible reason why he would expend the goodwill he has and expose the neutrality of his office to at least suspect treatment henceforth, there are many other reasons why it’s a bad idea and wrong for the Chief Justice to go forward with this and leading them would be just a matter of answering a simple question; why would the Chief Justice basically endorse Miguna’s book and not Kimbo cooking fat or any other commercial product?

Is there any difference between the two in terms of keeping the office of the Chief Justice above reproach or ridicule, let alone the harsh criticism that is sure to follow over this basically trivial issue in the larger scheme of things?

Or, if you want to keep it at the book level, why would the Chief Justice endorse Miguna’s book and not books by others be they fictions, non-fictions or simply trash?

It is not as if Miguna is set to release a tome about things we don’t already know or of any value beyond being fodder to Raila’s haters and critics and if he does, in fact, “reveal” things heretofore unheard of or unknown, no one doubts they will be nothing but fiction cooked in his mind over these many months he has been brooding to get back at his former boss and likely our next president, Raila Amolo Odinga.

These are certainly cross-hairs the Chief Justice does not wish to find himself in for any reason, not even friendship for certain things are far more important than that friendship when it comes to matters of state and specifically the very office he holds as Chief Justice and President of the Supreme Court.

The Chief Justice was appointed from outside the judiciary specifically because it was believed he will bring the kind of freshness and untainted history to clean the judiciary but that does not mean he has free rein to ignore or tramp traditions and practices that have made judiciaries across the globe the venerable institutions they are and chief among that is simply staying above petty things such as lowering oneself to be used as a prop in launching a book that’s likely to be a flop as many others before which their peddlers promised so much only to offer nothing to write home about in the end.

To be sure, there are many hungry to devour every word in the book but no one who knows anything about these things seriously thinks Miguna is going to add anything to the political discourse beyond what is known and there certainly won’t be any “insights” into how the government works beyond what we know—or more precisely, beyond what anyone who follows these things closely will know.

In Chief Justice Willy Mutunga and the Judiciary Must Stay Above Politics, I noted the following:

Chief Justice Dr. Willy Mutunga is once again having some of us scratching our heads by what he is saying or more precisely, how is going about saying it.

While no one can disagree with what the CJ is saying about ministers upholding the constitution or resigning, I find it wholly wanting that he has seen it fit to do so in a manner that appears and can, in fact, be said be an injection of himself and our courts into politics which is as bad as having no independent judiciary to begin with; of what difference is it if the CJ is another politician?

Would this not lead us to yet another era of blurred or no distinction between the politicians and the robed ones who are supposed to make sure the politicians are put in check and respect the law?

It would be prudent for our CJ to use the powers of his office and court to implement real change in the judiciary and rule of law in Kenya, not the media for if he chooses the latter as his primary vehicle, the politicians, especially those who would prefer status quo would reduce him to ridicule in no time and before one blinks, the court will be held to the same low esteem it’s been rather than bringing itself above politics and establishing itself as a noble place of awe and respect.

I am not here suggesting that the CJ should keep quiet and not say a word outside the bench or his chambers; far from it.

What I am suggesting is, the CJ should be selective and make public utterances outside his traditional avenues, namely, outside of court opinions and decisions only when it’s necessary to do so to explain the court’s judicial philosophy or policies but not politics.

The CJ will, in fact, accomplish and be more effective in both laying a firm foundation for the new court and effecting the desired reforms in the judiciary by simply focusing on carrying out the reforms, while ensuring that the court renders sound, well-reasoned decisions and opinions grounded in the constitution which would speak volumes and go far in reforming the judiciary than what the CJ can say in the media.

It is worth repeating this and hope the Chief Justice hears our plea to him to take this rare opportunity he has been given and help shape our judiciary in a manner all of us can be proud of and much to the benefit of our country.

At the time the court is poised to render important decisions that have far-reaching implications about our country’s future, the last thing the Chief Justice would want to do, is go mingle with Miguna Miguna at the InterContinental in the launch of a book many have already dismissed as nothing but an effort to get back at Raila for sacking him not any different than many a servant has been sacked.

Were Miguna not otherwise sacked and left the government on his own in efforts to disclose wrong-doing he had found while there, his book would not only be a roadmap to correct that wrong, the Intercontinental Hotel would be too small a venue to launch the book as everyone would be right there to give him support and applaud him for the job well done in penning the manual, if he was around and alive to witness the support.

This is not the case by far and given some of the things that have been leaked as earthshaking and a taste of things to come, my prediction is the launch and aftermath will only be rivaled in history by Mudavadi’s launch of his presidential bid under UDF after defecting from ODM and now many including him are wondering why.

I cannot fathom why Chief Justice would want his name mentioned together with such historical flops, especially arising out of this well-known background of controversy involving Miguna and the PM but if he does, he will have only but him to blame.

The collateral damage will be questions about his judgment that will linger long after the lights are out at the launch venue for the book and all garbage is dumped from the event if he, indeed, graces the event with his presence.

Let’s hope he doesn’t.

[Unedited]

 

Prof. Makau Mutua Is Once Again Wrong About Raila Campaign Strategy This Time Regarding Ruto Part II

State House Nairobi

This is a clean-up piece to remove any doubts that may be lingering as to whether as I have shown Prof. Makau Mutua is wrong in his condemnation of the purported thawing of relations between Raila and possible alliance with one William Samoei Ruto.

In Part I of this two part series, I laid out the case why Raila working with Ruto, if they do, is not a bad thing and is, in fact, a good thing for both politicians and for the country as a whole.

I in this Part II, of the series, I address the good professor’s specific contentions, assertions and arguments.

Let me start with the more easier one to dispose of: Makau says “Let me guarantee this – Mr Odinga will handily lose the election if he enters into a political marriage with Mr Ruto.”

The only thing anyone can guarantee about Kenyan politics or any country’s politics for that matter is there will be rigging and cheating of one level or another.

Everything else anyone guarantees you is nothing but their wishful thinking.

I would rather the professor makes his arguments without any such guarantee because it neither advances nor adds to his very unconvincing case at best he is trying to make against Raila potentially working with Ruto.

When Makau says “it’s clear there’s a political cabal around Mr Odinga that’s giving him deadly advice,” leaving aside what the good professor means by “deadly” advice, he forgets his own advice may as well be rightly dismissed as unhelpful and simply off at best.

I have already noted in Part I that Makau’s attempt to prop up his feeble argument against Raila working with Ruto by invoking heavenly authority in Mark, 8:36 is simply inapplicable for the reasons I noted in that blog.

I disagree with Makau’s contention that “there’s an un-interrogated assumption that this election – like all previous Kenyan elections – will be driven by tribe.”

Contrary to this assumption the professor rightly characterizes as “un-interrogated,” there is plenty of anecdotal evidence on the ground that more and more Kenyans have either already shaken themselves free of this tribalism disease or they are on the way there.

The only object standing in the way for others and trying to exploit the double vices of tribalism and negative ethnicity is variously presenting itself as G-something—mara G7, or now maybe G1 and what have you but only they and their followers believe ukabila is the winning formula for the upcoming general elections.

Raila and ODM, on the other hand, are on to a 47 County Campaign (47CC) strategy pursued on the principle and belief each vote from every part of the country counts and none should be taken for granted let those bent on grouping them under some tribal formula do so but may the better strategy for the country prevail.

The faith and optimism in many a Kenyan leads to a belief it’s not tribalism that would prevail as Makau posits, but the true Kenyan spirit as embodied on those who have shed or will shed the vice.

Professor Makau argues that it’s because of the tribalism factor that Raila is courting Ruto—that’s if he is, adding “[Raila’s] handlers believe that only Mr Ruto can bring back the Kalenjin into the PM’s fold.”

While it may as well be the case that Raila “handlers” believe that only Ruto can “bring back the Kalenjin into the PM’s fold”—a proposition which is wrong by itself to the extent it assumes that Kalenjin are like a hoard of sheep to be directed which way to go en masse by Ruto, Raila and others could actually more accurately be of the view there are any number of ways Raila and ODM can regain lost ground in RV without Ruto and they are presently doing just that and increasingly successfully so.

Makau says Raila’s “handlers” have “panicked because they think they’ve lost the Luhya with the defection of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi to the UDF party.”

Not sure where the good professor gets information or is simply imagining things but anyone who cares to check would find out neither Raila’s “handlers” nor he himself is panicked or thinks they have “lost the Luhya” vote; if anything, everyone I know is happy and pleased Mudavadi’s defection was so anti-climactic and without any noticeable impact even he must be scratching his head wondering why he defected.

True, those bent on “stopping” Raila will do what they can in their ABR (Anyone But Raila) quest, including propping up Mudavadi and pumping his way all they can in futile efforts to have him shoved down our throats as our next president but in the end, the people’s will shall prevail.

Makau says, “Neither the Kalenjin nor the Luhya will vote like a bloc. Like the Kikuyu, the Kalenjin and Luhya votes will be scattered to the four winds.”

I agree for the same reasons Makau provides for his rationale but disagree with his take that Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth “will claim a sizeable chunk of the Kikuyu vote.”

That honor—if you can call it that will go to whoever the Inner Sanctums (Kibaki clique) end with as their ABR.

Makau concludes that, of the big five communities, only the Luo will likely vote as a bloc.

I would also agree with that but add following closely will be Kikuyus and Kalenjins but the Kales will only vote in greater margins as a block in favor or Raila but not the other candidates coveting the vote.

In other words, we shall have either a repeat of 2007 or a split vote where Raila still garners a good chunk of the vote regardless of whether Ruto returns to ODM or aligns with him or not.

While I agree with Makau that only Luos are likely to vote as a block—and who can deny them, I disagree with him when he says that “Mr Odinga should stop ‘thinking tribe’ and cozying up to Mr Ruto.”

This assertion assumes that Raila “cozying” up with Ruto is tribal math politics based; it need not be as a logical case can also be made Raila simply wants all the support he can get even from his rivals and enemies as any politician seeking high office would.

Indeed, given Raila has a pathway to State House that does not include Ruto’s involvement or support, it is less about tribal math Raila would want to work with Ruto than merely being pragmatic and smart about how he goes about charting his course to State House.

Makau says Raila “must define himself as the ‘issues candidate’ – detribalised, reformist, and pro-youth.”

I agree with all that except to note being an “issues candidate” can only but take him so far and I have no idea what the good professor means by Raila being “detribalized.”

If by that Makau means Raila is or has been a tribalist, then he needs to put less sugar on his coffee to gain more clarity of who Raila is or has been with respect to mambo ya ukabila.

I disagree with Makau that “the [Raila Ruto] courtship is a genius political plot to destroy him.”

Makau advances the argument that because Ruto is one of the so-called Moi orphans and the more notorious or infamous at that, and because he led opposition to the constitution, and even more so because of the pending ICC charges against him, Raila’s alliance with Ruto, according to Makau, “would shatter Mr Odinga’s credibility at home and abroad.”

Not necessarily.

While it’s true and possible many may find such an alliance wanting, even more would understand perfectly why it’s necessary and significant—marginally as it may be, in the reelection effort of Raila.

All politicians, local and abroad will understand exactly what Raila would be doing, if he does so and would do the same thing were they in his shoes and ditto for all foreign politicians therefore nothing to worry about that.

Makau then asserts, “How [Raila] embraces such a politician and calls himself a reformer is beyond me.”

This assertion is a thesis by itself requiring a complete chapter in a book to explain why the professor is wrong but, let me just say being a reformist is not to the exclusion of being a pragmatist.

The two actually must go hand in hand lest there won’t be any reforms to speak of.

I do agree with Makau that “Mr Ruto would not miss a second chance to bury Mr Odinga” but note this will be highly unlikely—meaning, getting a second chance, not the burying part.

However, I disagree with him when he says “hypocrisy and opportunism would define Mr Odinga if Mr Ruto was to become his Siamese twin.”

This is actually an interesting metaphor coming from Makau who should know the metaphor is misplaced.

In order for the metaphor to apply, Raila would have to pick Ruto as his running mate and even then, the metaphor will be inapt in describing such an outcome because doing so, namely, Ruto becoming Raila’s running mate would not be hypocrisy neither would it be opportunism.

It will be smart politics by both the PM and Ruto.

Makau ask, “How could Mr Odinga look Kenyans in the eye – and the country’s friends abroad – and call himself an incorruptible leader? Who, pray, would believe him?”

Makau has committed a fallacy by assuming a premise that is false.

It is not true that not agreeing to work with Ruto amounts to being incorruptible because Ruto is no more corrupt in 2012 than he was in 2007.

The good professor goes on to add, “With Mr Ruto at Mr Odinga’s side, we can expect impunity to reign in the next government.”

Not true.

Raila can work with Ruto and others to get elected yet continue pursuing his reform agenda unimpeded and unaffected by anyone including those who help him get reelected.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

When Makau says “The new Constitution would be treated like trash – a meaningless piece of paper,” he is describing what would happen if Raila or a reform minded leader like him is not our next president.

Makau says, “I will guarantee something else – all true reformers and bona fide civil society leaders would desert Mr Odinga in droves.”

Besides as noted above being unwise to guarantee anything in politics, it is simply not the case that “all true reformers and bona fide civil society would desert Mr. Odinga in droves.”

A few may but a vast majority would understand the principle of not winning a skirmish only to lose the battle.

When Makau asks “Imagine what he’ll do once in power if he betrays you before the election,” he is obviously once again engaged in fallacious reasoning to the extent he assumes a false premise, namely, that Raila agreeing to work with Ruto would be a “betrayal” when that’s clearly not the case; a few like Makau may see it as being a betrayal but most will not therefore Makau’s slippery slope argument following his false premise is equally off and unconvincing.

Makau seems to go downhill with his arguments from this point.

For example, he ponders the question, “Why then would Mr Odinga do an about-face and oppose the ICC? This may only paint Mr Odinga in an unflattering light – as someone who’d do anything to get himself to State House.”

Raila has not said he is now opposed to the ICC and neither does agreeing to work with Ruto imply or mean that he has.

The two are separate and apart from each other I am surprised Makau is attempting to make a connection that does not exist.

When Makau says “Mr Odinga shouldn’t dangle the ICC deferral carrot in front of Mr Ruto” he contradicts himself because he also acknowledges and declares that “Mr Odinga has no power to make Mr Ruto’s charges at the International Criminal Court go away.”

How can Raila dangle something he doesn’t have?

Did the good professor really think this one thru?

Obviously not.

The good professor concludes his piece by noting “Mr Odinga has a choice to make. Is he a man of principle, or a fair weather reformer? Will he bend to the wind for the sake of power?”

Raila has proven over and over he is a man of principle and his reform credentials speak volumes on their own.

He is not about to flip and become someone else at this late stage in his life and especially when he knows so many are counting on him to remain steady and focused on the goal he has been on a life-long journey to achieve and that is completely liberating our country from the shackles of corruption, impunity and tribalism.

When Makau says Mr Odinga’s reunion with Mr Ruto would be akin to President Obama becoming a Republican to be re-elected and that the thought sickens him, he is collapsing two distinct concepts into one and that is, political ideology and strategy.

The two are not one and the same, even though related and impact each other as they must.

Given Kenyan politics is less about ideology, if any and all about strategy, a wiser politician is the one who focuses on a winning strategy and Raila appears to have one in place with his 47CC (47 County Campaign strategy).

This Ruto alliance may be true but yet again it may not be.

Whatever the situation, the goal for those who care about reform and fundamentally transforming our country has to be to elect someone who can best lead us in doing so and that person as it is today is none other than Raila Amolo Odinga.

 

Raila Should Select The Certified Reformist Gitobu Imanyara As His Running Mate

The Standard Online in a story I cut and paste below has joined others in speculating that Raila may be zeroing in on the Central Imenti MP and certified reformist Hon. Gitobu Imanyara to be his running mate.

This follows Mr. Imanyara’s joining the influential Friends of Raila (FORA) lobby group where he was immediately appointed as deputy patron, a key position in the group and Raila’s reelection campaign.

I am proudly and enthusiastically calling on Raila to make our good friend Imanyara his running mate and end the speculation because Imanyara is not only a true reformist committed to bringing about change in the country much as Raila is, he provides the best option for regional balance without resorting to tribal based arithmetic which those who believe in it would say Raila must pick someone from RV.

As yours truly has been saying on these blogs, Raila is seeking the presidency based on a 47 County Campaign strategy (47CC), which means he will traverse and harvest votes across the country and regardless of what region or tribe because his goal is not only to get more than the requisite majority to be sworn as president but also to be elected with a commanding majority from across the country so that he can bring about the long overdue transformation of our country he has promised.

Hon. Gitobu Imanyara will be an ideal running mate and Deputy President to help him bring about that transformation.

That does not mean there are not others equally impressive and/or qualified as Imanyara who can take the spot as well; there are and I am sure the PM can toss a coin as between and among them and pick one with the same desired outcome of having a credible running mate who can bring about regional balance and as they and ODM go on to sweep the country at the polls.

The only thing I would say is, if one or another is not picked, especially among those others whose names have been recently mentioned as potential picks for running mate such as Henry Kosgey, let them not let that be a reason to slow down or hold back their support because there are many other ways they can contribute and impact in the transformation of the country working with Raila, if Kenyans give him the nod again as they did before but was prevented from being sworn as president.

Indeed, with the selection of Imanyara and the ongoing and steady regaining of lost ground in RV, this election maybe a repeat of 2007 must all of its ugliness, namely, Raila and ODM yet again sweeping the country.

This is because more and more Kenyans are saying enough of mambo ya ukabila, corruption and impunity.

They are also demanding that the constitution be fully implemented and none other than Raila of those out there with a serious shot at the presidency can make the case they can even come remotely close to Raila in fully implementing the constitution while at the same waging and winning a serious fight against corruption and ending impunity.

None

For the Standard story on Raila and Imanyara, go Standard Online

 

Prof. Makau Mutua Is Once Again Wrong About Raila Campaign Strategy This Time Regarding Ruto Part I

State House Nairobi

Professor Makau Mutua is wrong in his conclusions about what Ruto’s return to ODM portends or what were to happen were Raila to agree to work with Ruto by way of an alliance between the two and their respective parties.

Before analyzing Makau’s column in the Daily Nation inaptly titled “Raila Must Shun Ruto or Pay The Political Price,” it is important to keep a few things in mind as one evaluates what the good professor is talking about.

One of these is simply the fact that politics is not an exact science.

As in everything in life, there are many choices one may have to make in how to pursue political objectives or even to pursue them at all.

Given the various competing interests a politician must sometimes choose from or pacify and given the concomitant consequences directly flowing from making such decisions or failing to do so when things go south, a successful and effective politician is one who weighs all the available options to effect an objective and picks one that he or she must provide effective leadership in having a majority follow him or her with it and the key here is providing effective leadership which produces a following sufficient to effect successful pursuit of that objective.

There is no exact formula in how one does this but we can deduce from studying those who succeed in such endeavors to be mostly individuals with plenty of wisdom, stamina, and guts with relevant experience topping it all.

These qualities also ensure that, if one makes the call and it turns out to be the wrong one or backfires, they are able to quickly recover or face and deal with the consequences with gusto because even in defeat, there is success.

It all depends on the nature of underlying efforts and motives and, conversely, what comes of the outcome.

It’s easier to know the former than the latter but it’s not knowing the latter with any degree of certainty that makes some decisions and choices more difficult and risky than others.

This principle is particularly relevant in the Kenyan political setting because for decades, the most reliable predictor of outcome has been tribalism and ethnicity and this still remains the case to some great extent and how much we can only wait for the 2012 or 2013 elections to know for sure.

The question then becomes, since we know we can no longer as a nation continue to embrace and/or exploit tribalism and ethnicity in choosing or electing our leaders, what can we do to make sure we have the desired outcome of having neither of these destructive tendencies eradicated or once for all done with, leaving choosing or electing leaders strictly a matter of qualifications and leadership ability?

I don’t know for fact that Raila and Ruto are in talks towards Ruto returning to ODM or somehow the two working together as Makau and other posit that they are but, let’s assume for the sake of argument that they are; is Makau right in his condemnation of the efforts and his doomsday prediction that such cooperation will sink Raila’s presidential quest?

I do not think so and that brings me to Makau’s piece who I differ with completely in everything he is arguing in support of his position, starting from his seeking cover from the Bible, Mark 8:36, which says, “What good is it for a man to gain the whole world, yet forfeit his soul?”—a verse which is, with all due respect to the good professor, totally inapplicable here.

It would be wholly outside the scope of this article to go into an exposition why this verse is inapplicable in the manner Makau has used it so let me just say the verse applies to what we need to do as individuals to live according to God’s instructions and specifically prohibits us from pursuing earthly things that lead to the loss of our souls, which according to God is the greatest loss of all.

On the other hand, the verse is no more instructive or relevant than what is expected of our politicians individually and collectively as embodied in Chapter Six of the constitution which morally and ethically is the measure by which we must hold our leaders accountable to their conduct as it related to their ability to hold public office.

Anything more, including adhering to even higher moral and ethical standards is desirable but don’t hold your breath on that one.

Not that the Bible is not relevant in its teachings when it comes to politics; it is, but Makau would be better off looking elsewhere in the Bible such as Romans 3:23 which reminds us “for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God” and Chapter 6 is there to make sure only those passing its mandate are fit to hold office.

While Chapter Six sets the minimum standards for ethical and moral conduct in holding public office, there is no specific guidance given to parties anywhere as to what is the right or wrong way to conduct their affairs, including campaigns beyond what the law provides or prescribes.

There is no law that would bar Ruto from returning to ODM or for Raila to work with him so this simply becomes purely a question of political strategy and tactics but Makau has coyly turned the issue of political strategy into one of exclusively right and wrong from a moral and ethical standpoint.

Even though related on the one hand in that political strategy must be informed by legal, moral, and ethical considerations, it does not follow that both political strategy and these considerations fit into a clearly defined matrix where everyone can look and agree even what that definition is.

Intelligent, well-meaning people with no ulterior motives can differ as to their view of whether ODM accepting Ruto back or Raila working with Ruto is a morally right thing to do.

Sometimes asking the wrong question can lead to wrong answers and conclusions and this is one good example.

The question should be not one whether Ruto returning to ODM or Raila agreeing to work with Ruto is a good thing; rather, the question should be how significant is either event occurring toward advancing the prospect of having Raila, the leading reformist in the country, to be reelected and this time sworn as president?

If the answer is yes, this would be a significant move or even game changer, then the second question where all this morality and ethical considerations must be weighted in is is it worth it for either of these events to be allowed to occur or is as Makau argues committing political suicide?

The second question cannot be objectively answered by anyone who doesn’t understand and agree that there are, indeed, times where the end justifies the means and there couldn’t be a more clearer case than this where we either have a reformist president in Raila or a non-reformist, status quo lover of impunity and corruption as the alternative choice.

That is what this elections are going to be about and that’s not being subjective or biased because of my support for Raila but anyone who knows anything about our country, who is vying for the presidency and where they stand relative to reforms and full implementation of the constitution, they would have to objectively agree only Raila is the reformist and reform minded while everyone else is not and cannot embrace something this grand overnight or even after a long time.

Another way to understand this is to ask and objectively answer the question whether clearing obstacles in the way for a reformist like Raila, who stands over and above all others vying for the presidency as the most qualified candidate, is clearing these obstacles worth it if that includes working with people like Ruto who obviously have the ICC hanging of their heads?

Answering this question must as a precondition require one to be intellectually honest as to how does Ruto being charged at the ICC figure in this analysis of whether it’s a good or bad thing for him to return to ODM or work with Raila.

My contention is notwithstanding his reckless conduct with his pal Uhuru during the so-called “prayer rallies” which were nothing but, Ruto is actually innocent under the law until proven guilty.

If we respect the concept of the rule of law, we must accept that fact.

Note this position is not inconsistent with my previously asking Ruto and UK to suspend their presidential ambitions in Uhuru and Ruto Must Now Suspend Their Presidential Ambitions because working with another candidate is wholly a different thing from running as one for obvious reasons not necessary to elaborate.

Having taken the view from the very beginning that Ruto cannot be convicted of the serious crimes against humanity he faces—unless he bungles his defense—and a position I know I differ with many of my ODM friends, one may be tempted to dismiss my argument as biased.

It is fashionable to sing the refrain Ruto is guilty of the serious crimes he stands charged with and therefore Raila or ODM should have nothing to do with him but I am not there.

The only argument one can make and I have is Ruto’s stock has steadily gone down from when he miscalculated and allowed himself to be used to topple Raila as ABR (Anyone But Raila) only to crash and burn such that Raila can easily dispense with any desire to work with him but the flip side of this argument is equally convincing and that is, even if his stock as devalued, it still has value to give dividends to make it worthwhile keeping it or in this case working with him.

Marginal value but value nonetheless.

A different argument that can be put forth and persuasively so is sometimes you just have to fight fire with fire.

Right now, our Number One problem in Kenya is tribalism and we must slay this animal if we are ever to attain true fruits of independence as a united, peace loving nation.

You cannot find anyone more filled with hope and optimism when it comes to Kenyan politics and our people than yours truly but even he must come to grips with the reality and fact that change cometh slowly.

There is no question we are seeing signs that even though still a strong and dominating a factor in Kenyan politics, there is anecdotal evidence tribalism and ethnicity may play a lesser role in the next elections thanks to efforts of leaders like Raila who are not only determined to preach the message of unity and ending tribalism and negative ethnicity as determinative factors in how we choose our leaders, they are providing the leadership needed to change the minds of even some of the hardcore believers of these destructive mindsets such that in the end, we shall have a majority agreeing with them and electing a president for the first time who neither tribalism nor massive rigging would be the determinative factor in how he is elected.

It would therefore behoove Raila to work with anyone and everyone willing to work with him knowing fully well that includes people who may have heavy baggage such as Ruto but the converse is less an attractive choice because taking the verse Makau cites literally to go the other direction would be the equivalent of a suitor who seeks to marry a woman of his dream and does everything he has been told is the right thing to do to win her heart and her parents’ blessing but forgets to do something as basic as inquiring and finding out what the woman really likes and wants.

A more clever suitor and competitor who equally covets the same woman finds out what makes the woman click and does it in addition to using his charm and wit to win her over and ditto her parents, leaving the other suitor hapless as he clings to unhelpful rules and practices while the woman joins the former’s hand in marriage.

In reality, the hapless suitor who loses out could be the medicine that the doctor ordered for the woman to have an everlasting and happy courtship and union but if the one who wins her heart has any scruples in him, he would strife to live up to the expectation created in both her and her parents before their approving of him, lest he will be deemed a bad mistake and rejected accordingly.

Same thing with the quest for the presidency of our beloved country.

There are many suitors in the field, including downright crooks and thieves but in making his case, Raila is saying he knows just what the bride and her parents need to win them over and has embarked on doing just that or meeting the need and if some of that falls outside the box in norms, practice and expectations, what matter most is that he is able to win over the hearts of the pride to be and parents.

If he doesn’t disappoint and becomes just what the doctor ordered for the woman and more, then whatever failings he may have had or could have henceforth pale in comparison and actually become understandable as simply a part of inescapable life.

In the context of reforms and Makau’s argument that Raila is doomed to lose the mantle he carries as a reformist if Ruto returns to ODM or if Raila agrees to work with him, Raila must summon all his political skills, charm and good luck to make the case why this is not a condemnable move, if it occurs, and doubly so as among some of the reformers and Civil Society.

The working assumption in the absence of any logical reason not to so assume is most of the Kenyans supporting Raila, including many of the reform only minded and Civil Society would back Raila and whatever he does within the bounds of acceptable or at least understandable options.

He need only worry about convincing the rest of the country; not all of them, but enough to put him over the constitutionally mandated 50% + 1 to be reelected and this time sworn as president.

In Part II, I will examine Prof. Makau Mutua’s specific contentions and arguments

 

The Kibaki Succession Game; Unfolding Truths and Other Revelations Part IV

When it became patently obvious to everyone, especially those minding ODM business that Mudavadi’s quest to challenge Raila for the ODM nomination in the false name of “internal democracy” was a sham, Raila and ODM quickly turned the tables on him.

According to reliable sources, the party determined that Raila had enough support throughout the country to withstand any challenge from Mudavadi, even taking into account the by then known fact that delegates were being bought and the more ominous fact that greater cataclysmic mischief would be visited on the party in the Mt. Kenya region during the nomination process.

If Mudavadi was early on being encouraged to challenge Raila because he was perceived to be a weakling who would not defeat Raila and even though the exercise was presumed to be good for the party in showing its transparency and openness, now the idea was to encourage Mudavadi to run but crash him in defeat while at the same time creating an opening to replace him as Raila’s running mate, having established the rationale for it himself, namely, no one should assume automatic nomination.

At about this time, I was given an opportunity by ODM Secretary General Anyang Nyong’o consented to by all to attend one of the ODM National Executive Committee meeting as a Diaspora observer on March 5, 2012.

All that that occurred at the meeting is confidential other than what the SG announced to the public therefore I cannot discuss but I came away with the impression Mudavadi was a man besieged with himself and totally uncertain as to what direction he was headed or even what he wanted.

Statements Mudavadi was making in public were inconsistent with what he was saying or did not say at the meeting and the mood there was from all sides that party unity was more important than aspirations of one individual be that Raila or Mudavadi and that partly explains why Mudavadi bolted because there was no love lost within the party that he was simply acting as a man on a mission to get rid of Raila at the instigation and direction from others with no interest at all for the welfare of the party.

Following that March 5, 2012 NEC meeting, it became readily apparent Mudavadi was badly losing his fake argument that Raila and ODM were “undemocratic” because basically everything he was demanding publicly, Raila and ODM were saying, “sure; we can do that!”

Where Mudavadi miscalculated and this really speaks to his weakness as a leader, is not knowing in politics saying one agrees to do anything doesn’t mean anything about when they will do it yet to demand that something that has already been promised be done today and not tomorrow and notwithstanding what procedures are in place to go about doing it makes one making such demands come across as now whining and insincere about their demands.

That’s exactly what Mudavadi did.

Having demanded that he must challenge Raila for the party nomination, Raila and ODM said, “sure, no problem; go for it!”

Yet, when it was brought to his attention that in order to do so the party constitution must be amended to delete or amend a provision that provides for automatic nomination of party leader as presidential flag bearer, Mudavadi demanded that this be done yesterday.

“Not so fast,” basically said ODM SG Anyang Nyong’o and other top ODM officials as they were filing party compliance documents with the Registrar’s office on April 9, 2012; “we don’t have time to legally amend our party constitution before the deadline to submit these documents, so chill, brother… the right time will come when we shall do the necessary amendments.”

Nothing wrong there.

Pure politics Mudavadi and his people could not have had a logical come-back without sounding whiny and insincere but they did anyway further exposing them as phonies.

From that point, Mudavadi’s quest, fake as it was, to challenge Raila quickly fizzled within ODM.

Because of the bungling in this fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.

Recall the original idea was to have Mudavadi knock out Raila as ODM flag-bearer to be followed by the schemers rallying behind their true choice for the presidency and annihilate Mudavadi and ODM at the polls.

However, upon further analysis and consideration, and especially given Mudavadi’s fumbling in his challenge of Raila for the ODM party nomination, the schemers quickly decided to get Mudavadi out of ODM and simply make him their preferred presidential candidate through and through.

Before making this decision, the pros and cons of Mudavadi vz two other individuals who were under serious consideration as the general election preferred candidate the Inner Sanctums were to throw their weight behind, after dumbing Mudavadi, who would have in this scenario earlier knocked off Raila, these pros and cons were not so carefully reviewed but it was concluded Mudavadi was, everything considered, the better bet.

I have not sourced this from anyone but my hunch tells me those in consideration to replace Mudavadi in the initial scenario where he was to be propped up only to be knocked down at the general election would have had to be the late Prof. Saitoti, Kalonzo Musyoka and one other person who I believe still remains an alternate to Mudavadi should he, too, crash and burn as ABR (Anyone But Raila).

As disclosed at the end of this blog, the schemers are prepared to do whatever they deem it takes to hoist to the presidency by ballot or other means their preferred choice and it really doesn’t matter who that is so long as a near convincing case can be made that he is presidential material.

Do not expect anything akin to the Moi project where everyone but a segment one should really worry about knew Uhuru was neither presidential material nor anyone who could be shoved down their throats just like that.

This time around, the schemers must present someone like Mudavadi who weak and ineffective leader he may be, at least a case passing the laugh test can be made that he can be president; dancing to the tune of his masters but president nonetheless.

It is also important to recall “schemers” here refers to two distinct and even unrelated groups connected only in their quest to stop Raila from being reelected as president: the Inner Sanctums, representing the inner core of Kibaki’s confidants and clique and the Desperados, those right outside the inner ring but having with the Inner Sanctums the aforementioned common purpose and objective of “stopping” Raila from being reelected as president.

Mudavadi is the project of the Inner Sanctums with gleeful collaboration and help from none other than Moi himself.

Meanwhile, there is so much distrust and mistrust among the Desperados, their role in KSG is becoming less and less important to the point they may just fizzle and recoil either to Raila side or go with the Inner Sanctums where they are increasingly becoming less and less important.

In fact, contrary to what is being reported, it is becoming more and more clear the Inner Sanctums don’t really give a hoot about either Uhuru or Ruto as they see both of them as a liability to them.

In this reasoning, rallying behind someone with less baggage, relatively speaking, like MM is a sure bet for them to hoist to State House than either Uhuru, Ruto or whoever they either or both chose to rally behind other than Raila.

On the other hand, and contrary to what other analysts have been saying, it is not the case that Kibaki is playing his cards in favor of Uhuru presidency or anyone else for that matter because he believes only he or that person can spare him from being taken to the Hague, should evidence at trial warrant that, and given State House has already been implicated.

Let’s have two things clear about this and this anyone can take to the bank:

First, the ICC Chief Prosecutor has broad discretion as to who they bring charges against and nothing anyone can do if they make a determination it’s neither in the public interest nor national security to bring charges against a sitting or former president.

Second, it doesn’t matter who is elected the next president in Kenya they are not ever going to “give up” Kibaki for prosecution at the ICC or anywhere for that matter.

To be even more analytically blunt about this, none of the cases really belong at the Hague.

These cases could have been tried and people found guilty or not guilty under our Penal Code or under special law amending the Code and for those arguing justice could not be found in the rotten judicial system we have had for decades and now under reform, the Hague was not and is not necessarily the only answer, even though it’s too late now and it might as well be.

Mudavadi is favored by the Inner Sanctums for reasons that have to do with protecting certain interests, including many involved in all manner of corruption they are genuinely afraid Raila will go after them were he to be reelected as president—something that is consistent with his character of not encouraging or sanctioning corruption.

The Desperados, on the other hand, are obsessed with “stopping” Raila simply because of their unadulterated, pure lust for power for the sake of having it and even more so to deny Raila that privilege simply because they would rather have it.

Nothing more, nothing less.

To best understand this, think of a beautiful woman in the middle of a boxing ring with several men ogling her all of them ugly and unattractive to any woman except for one who is the opposite and only one can have this one woman.

If they have any brains at all, they had better find ways to push the attractive one off the stage and have him restrained there while they desperately try to make their case with the woman who must pick one among these worse choices she never dreamed of in her life.

If the attractive one is also a giant they cannot even collectively lift even one of his feet, and if he is capable of crashing them all to flatness on the floor, then he will be the one to take the trophy and she won’t complain for he was the most attractive one after all.

So is the case with the so-called G7.

None among them is attractive to Kenyans to win their majority support yet Raila dwarfs them individually and even collectively, they are not able to move him no matter what they try, yet, they each want the trophy, namely, the presidency.

Their own unchecked ambitions and deeply rooted beliefs in tribalism may in the end be their own undoing but worry not much about them.

What Kenyans must worry and concern themselves about is what the Inner Sanctums are prepared to do to make sure the sphere of influence in political power in Kenya still remains the Mt. Kenya region after the elections even though not necessarily having one of their own as the next president.

In a nutshell, this is what is driving KSG by the Inner Sanctums, namely, the preservation of power in the Mt. Kenya region.

They must find someone they can control from the get go to the last day that individual serves as president, if they succeed in having him elected or imposed upon us.

That person right now is Mudavadi.

Since the late Prof. Saitoti was quietly trying to mount his own more or less independent “reformed” campaign, and since no one other than those privy to the KSG scheme would have known what the schemers had in mind with Saitoti in connection with their scheme, the selection of Mudavadi as ABR had no public bearing on the late Prof. Saitoti’s presidential bid plans.

Musyoka, on the other hand, has clearly been sidelined already and Mudavadi has for all practical purposes and intent been elevated to VP and is de facto one for now much to the chagrin of Musyoka but no one would shed even crocodile tears for that one.

After the unprecedented introduction of Kibaki on the occasion of the 49^th Madaraka Day celebration at Nyayo Stadium the other day, Mudavadi did not even wait for the president to speak but was driven out and flown VP style to a rally he was earlier scheduled to attend.

This was his inauguration as ABR.

Granted Musyoka and the PM were out of the country at the time Kibaki had Mudavadi introduce him at the Madaraka Day rally but, to highlight this shift of power from the hapless Musyoka to Mudavadi, Kibaki sent him a few days later to give a speech in his behalf at the Fifth World Accreditation Day held at KICC when Musyoka was said to be nearby literally at the same time.

There is nothing wrong with that as that is politics as usual.

What is wrong and what Kenyans must watch out for and reject, are the extent the schemers are willing to go to have their preferred choice hoisted to State House regardless of the people’s will as expressed in an open and transparent ballot.

According to reliable sources, the plan among the KSG schemers is to install Mudavadi or whoever succeeds him as ABR at any cost and literally so.

Part of this plan is to outright buy MPs allied to Raila and especially those from the ODM strongholds in the hopes of demoralizing and crashing ODM, including chief among that list Ababu Namwamba who my source tells me has already been offered KSHs200 million for the small act of “courage” to defect but has so far declined.

The KSHs 200 million is according to my source the price tag for “more principled and grounded MPs” and those less so the going rate is half of that amount and in between.

The price tag goes down to literally a few hundred bob for buying votes at the precinct and sub-location levels.

The schemers have put the overall price tag for their invidious scheme to retain control of the presidency at 9 billion, 900 million, with 6 billion of that already pledged by one individual who is key in KSG.

The rest is to come from—guess where?

The tax-payers.

Supporters who have for a long time been strategically placed in various ministries, starting from Treasury are under instructions to start stealing and piling in a fund to finance this scheme.

It is feared that the theft has long since started and is underway.

The rest of the money will come from a list of about 100 individuals who are each tasked to raise 100 million each.

Other plans include maximizing the use of tribalism and other divisive tactics to deny Raila the vote not to forget the good-old massive rigging.

In Part V, I will offer my views as to what all this means and what ODM and Kenyans of goodwill must all do to counter this very dangerous and yet again a brewing affront on our beloved country.

 

The Kibaki Succession Game: The Unfolding Truth and Other Revelations Part III

Kibaki, Raila and others each wondering about KSG at past event.

On August 5, 2011, I met a friend I knew to be good friends with both the PM and the MP for Sabatia Hon. Musalia Mudavadi at a popular after-hours gathering place for many a politician and business types near Yaya Center.

In the course of our hanging out with others joining in and out of our chat, I asked my friend how things were going politically and his response jolted me momentarily: “Don’t be surprised if Raila is not the ODM nominee,” my friend almost passingly told me.

A bit shocked but trying not to show, I replied, “that’s a new one; why do you say that?”

And then my friend shared with me reasons why.

This was the first time I knew something was afoot with MM in connection with KSG.

Although my friend did not make any connection or mention MM’s role in the larger scheme of things in the succession politics, and specifically even though he did not mention anything to do with KSG and its schemers I now know, my friend did make it emphatically clear that he was aware of a plot by some in ODM to replace Mudavadi as Raila’s running mate and this, my friend told me, would be a suicidal move on the part of Raila and ODM.

Agreeing with my friend on this second point, and putting aside his shocker about the possibility of Raila not being the ODM nominee, I penned Why Raila Cannot Drop Mudavadi and Word To Raila Supporters In East and Central in which I made the case why Mudavadi should not be dropped as VP running mate for Raila.

It should be noted that at time and that is by September 2011, the issue within ODM was whether or not to keep Mudavadi as Raila’s running mate, not whether Mudavadi or anyone should challenge Raila for the party nomination.

It was a given as the ODM constitution provides even to-date that Raila as party leader will automatically become the flag-bearer for the party as presidential candidate.

Indeed, a compelling case can be made from contemporaneously occurring events that Mudavadi himself counted it as a major victory to simply survive efforts to replace him as VP running mate.

Things changed, however, on January 23, 2012 with the ICC confirmation of crimes against humanity charges against Uhuru and Ruto, the two politicians who are united only in their declared quest to “stop” Raila.

Recall from Part I by this time, Ruto had already crashed and burned as ABR and the schemers were in over-drive trying to find a replacement.

The replacement came following the call to Mudavadi who as I previously blogged all gleefully willing to challenge Raila and with enough “support” he was promised, he assured the schemers he could topple Raila as party leader and grab the party nomination as ODM presidential candidate.

What he didn’t know at that time was the conniving schemers also had in this KSG plans to politically destroy him once nominated and pave way for their own preferred true candidate and this in their calculation would have been pretty much anyone they fancied, having removed Raila as their main obstacle and ODM being in tatters upon destroying Mudavadi, its presidential candidate in this scenario.

Everything looked good on paper:

Money: Check

Decoys: Check

State House: Check.

But, when it came to implementation, the schemers found they had on hand a situation none of them really contemplated even as they knew Mudavadi was no Raila when it came to Kenyan politics.

The plan, according to a reliable source, was twofold: On the one hand, Mudavadi was to take Raila head on with no holds barred making the case Raila is unelectable because he had “irreversibly lost” both the RV and Mt. Kenya region votes in total but he (Mudavadi) could regain these votes with ease and sweep the nation come general elections.

On the other hand, according to the same source, the plan was to both buy enough ODM delegates across the country to tip the scales for Mudavadi as well as to make sure none of the delegates from Mt. Kenya region even as cast a single vote for Raila and the latter was to be accomplished by a combination of vote buying and threats or even violence if necessary.

Unfortunately for the schemers, however, Mudavadi being the weak, indecisive person he is, came off the gates comatose.

Rather than taking the fight to Raila for the party nomination by drawing sharp distinctions between he and Raila, Mudavadi essentially came out mumbling something to the effect he was merely trying to make sure there was “internal democracy” within ODM by offering himself as a candidate.

He even went as far as promising he would not say anything negative about Raila and that his will be simply a contrast in style and sense of direction.

A first year Political Science student could have told him this would not work, given the schemer’s objective to annihilate Raila because neither they nor anyone else in KSG was interested in internal democracy of anything.

They wanted Raila’s political head and this was the feeblest way it could be delivered, namely, talking gibberish.

One can understand why Mudavadi was sluggish off the gate: It would be the first time in his political life that he would have to undertake something of this magnitude on his own.

Those fronting and backing him were behind the scenes and never to be seen or known in public unlike the past where they publicly wagged and tossed him around as a little toy.

Moi, for example, held him up to the Luhyas and Western Kenya in general and said “you want this (goodies), then you would have to vote for my man as president.”

They wisely rejected and so did the country.

Mudavadi’s challenge of Raila was so timid, lackluster and simply unthreatening many, including loyal ODMers saw nothing wrong with it and even encouraged it.

Not yours truly.

Putting two and two together from just observing what Mudavadi was saying and doing and with some hints from a source in Mudavadi’s camp who was not divulging much, I sounded the alarm in Mudavadi Has No Good Reason To Challenge Raila for ODM Party Nomination posted on January 27, 2012 in which I basically noted the Mudavadi’s challenge was a sham and unhelpful for Raila and the party.

Immediately after posting that blog, I received notes from at least one top Raila and ODM confidant telling me in his view, what Mudavadi was doing was healthy for the party and that I should support the idea.

I would have to admit this coming from this trusted friend of the PM, and someone I know and respect his views very well, I found myself seconding guessing the position I had taken about this MM challenge being a sham but my hunch remained unaffected.

About 2 weeks later, I penned An Open Letter To Hon. Wycliff Musalia Mudavadi in which I implored Mudavadi in my naïve belief he would listen much as others were imploring him to put aside this what some of us smelled a rat for not being a genuine effort to challenge Raila.

I would later confirm through Mudavadi’s confidant I first mentioned above that MM read the letter and took issue with something I said in it that he thought was an unfair attack of him.

In fact, not too long after sending and posting that open letter, I run into Mudavadi in person on one of my visits home and knowing fully well he had read my letter, I asked him as we were shaking hands if everything was okay with him and the party.

With a smile that told me all I needed to know, and probably a desire on his part to land a left hook across my belly, MM simply nodded in the affirmative and said yes and that’s all was said between yours truly and him as others joined in the small room for a brief impromptu party meeting.

Mudavadi, of course, was smiling all the way to the bank as it were.

Upon returning to the US, I continued to receive information from reliable sources that Mudavadi was up-to no good as far as Raila and ODM was concerned and partly based on this information, I penned Mudavadi Must Come Clean About Anti-ODM Meetings With Uhuru, Ruto and Other Men in which I noted the following:

On 20 March 2012, there was an anti ODM meeting in Jimmy Kibaki’s office in Gigiri. In attendance were Mr. Sammy Koech, Jimmy Kibaki, and a representative of Hon. Mudavadi as well as Hon. Kenyatta’s. The main topic was how Mr. Ruto, Mr. Kibaki and Hon. Kenyatta can support Mudavadi to run down ODM. Detailed plans that continue to unfold were laid.

Mr. Kibaki advised that Mudavadi should not quit ODM yet, “If he quits, he will find himself under a tree and his life will be worse than it was in 2002.” He went on to suggest that if Uhuru and Ruto are to go to The Hague, Mudavadi should receive their blessings, because, they said, “He is malleable and nationally acceptable.”

The meeting of 20 March also mooted the idea of “doing a dirty job,” whatever that may mean. They agreed to use someone close to Hon. Mudavadi to do “the dirty job.”

Hon. Mudavadi cannot deny this.

Nor can he deny that the Gigiri meeting on 20 March was informed that he has held several secret meetings with Mzee Moi, where they have discussed how to scuttle ODM.

A further meeting arranged for Tuesday 27 March at 11.00 am did not take place. However, one eventually happened on Friday 30 March. The whole agenda was on the ODM nominations. In particular, the meeting discussed how Hon. Mudavadi should use the issue of ODM presidential nomination to good effect. He should make the party look so bad such that “when he leaves, he will have public sympathy.”

Another meeting took place last week, on 02 April from 6.00 pm to 2.00 am, with Hon. Uhuru, Hon. Njeru Githae, Gen. Karangi and Mr. Paul Ndung’u in attendance.

Hon. Mudavadi has also held a variety of secret meetings with Hon. Ruto at Palacina and Crowne Plaza Hotels in Nairobi, with the agenda of destroying ODM and stopping the Reform Agenda in Kenya.

I stated in that blog that Mudavadi could not deny any of this and he never did as it was all true.

Meanwhile, ODM by this time had figured what Mudavadi was up-to and true as any savvy political party could be, it turned the tables on Mudavadi.

In Part IV, I will continue chronicling KSG and finally reveal what I know to be the current state of KSG.

 

Excepts still thinking ahead: “Because of the bungling in his fake bid to challenge Raila under the false name of “internal democracy,” the schemers were faced with a dilemma: to drop the idea altogether or salvage it with its concomitant risk of total failure.”

…

And with that, MM was converted from a pawn to be used in the high stakes game of KSG to, in the minds of the schemers, their only hope to defeat Raila altogether in the general elections.

…

To say the man is now not only the unchallengeable ABR but also the de facto Vice President of the Republic of Kenya would be feebly stating the case.

Where does that leave Kalonzo Musyoka?

Plus, how does the death of Saitoti affect KSG?

Short answer: Look for who is appointed to replace Saitoti as minister for internal security and Ojode as his assistant.

All your answers will be right there.

To be continued.

 

My Response to A Misinformed Raila Basher and Hater Re The ICC

The following is my response to a well known Raila basher appearing in a Kenyan forum the basher posted his comment in the form of questions directed at another blogger but post here for archival purposes. His initial post appears at the end of this blog.

Here we go…

Brother Anyumba, please allow me to reply in your behalf in further education and information of my “nephew” on these matters he only sees from the prism “how does this help or hurt Raila?” which is very limiting because if its anything that helps or tends to go in favor of Raila, he either never sees it or does but pretends he hasn’t.

First, you are obviously right and I said pretty much the same thing in Uhuru and Ruto Must Now Suspend Thier Presidential Ambitions that either or both UK and Ruto being allowed to run is a good thing for Raila and ODM.

Here is what I said for those who may have not read the piece:

There are those who argue, and these two suspects obviously believe in the same and that is, their being barred from vying is a windfall for Raila and his own presidential ambitions.

That’s nonsense.

Raila’s prospects for being reelected as president actually significantly improve, almost like day and night if the two are allowed to vie and that’s a fact only those who don’t understand Kenyan politics may doubt.

This is a position yours truly has maintained from the beginning and is, in fact, on record as saying Ruto will altogether be acquitted unless he bungles in the defense of the case against him.

Second, it is needless to say false for Ochwangi to allege without any evidence, zero, zilch other than alleging in bad faith that Raila has been “going around the world trying to lobby for trials before the elections.”

This assertion is not only false, its illogical because only ICC can determine trial dates consistent with the Rome Statute and in view of its own calender, given prior cases that must be tried first.

Nothing else and certainly nobody else can tell the ICC when to hold trials or how to anyone who tells you or believes otherwise simply doesn’t understand how courts work in general or how the ICC in particular works.

Here is all you need to know about the ICC process on this: It takes at least one year before an ICC case goes to trial after confirmation of charges.

The charges against the Ocampo-4 were confirmed in January this year, which means the earliest the cases would go to trial is January 2013.

In practical examples, the Lubanga case took 22 months to get to trial; the Katanga and Ngudjolo 13 months and Bemba 14 months.

There is nothing or anyone can change this fact short of amending the Rome Statute so those saying the PM was going around seeking an earlier trial date for the case are just payukering.

The PM did no such a thing and makes no sense for anyone to do so anyway.

Third, when the PM said these suspects were fortunate to be allowed to roam around free when people accused of lesser serious crimes as regular murder languish in jail for years before trial, he was stating a fact.

However, the suspects crossed the line when they started holding the so-called “prayer rallies” and someone had to call them I have previously blogged I believe they received a cease and desist order from the ICC after their dangerous antics were brought to the court’s attention lest they be arrested and thus the reason we saw them abandon the extremely dangerous strategy they were pursuing in efforts to derail the ICC process.

Fourth, recycling PNU propaganda here from Nipate does not pass as either fact or analysis and is not even worth responding to other than to do Ochwangi and anyone else who doesn’t know a favor to say the following:

When any politician or party hires a research firm to do any study or survey, the results are known only to a handful of trusted strategists and advisers who will never leak that information.

So, when you see a news source or blog citing an “insider” disclosing purportedly negative or harmful information from such a study or survey, that “insider” is either an idiot who should not be an insider to begin with or he or she is just a figment of the imagination in the mind of whoever is peddling the nonsense.

Raila’s insiders privy to any such sensitive information such as internal surveys and studies are known and none of them is that dumb or an idiot to disclose negative information about anything pertaining to the survey or study.

So, there you have it omoigwa and the rest.

Remember my continued counsel and heed if you have not already: start practicing saying “His Excellency Raila Amolo Odinga!”

End blog.

And now the post I responded to:

Anyumba,
Oh Yeah?! Gwa! Since when? Did Captain Bandia get that memo before going around the world trying to lobby for the trials before the elections? Did the captain know that when he called for their arrest? Did his surrogates such as “detective” Midiwo and Gitobu “ I was made to face Mt.Kenya and say Uhuru tuko pamoja 3 times” Imanyara get the memo before they deliberately tried to bait the ICC to issue arrest warrants against UK and Ruto? Hahahahhaha, you really crack me up George, and maybe it is the ODM Cool aid that has gotten the best of you but the rest of us are still sober. What about the American Firm RAO hired that now reports Captain Bandia is in a much weaker position than he was in 2007 and blames him for foolishly relying on the ICC as his ticket to State house? http://nipate.com/america-now-doubts-raila-win-part-one-t13851.html  So how do you now reconcile all this and spin it into a sum gain or is it a blessing for Captain Bandia? Help me understand please… wacha zako wewe, funga virago mrudi nyambani for retirement, ama? Time is up…