My Tweets on Goings On in Kenya Right Now Besides COVID-19 and Where We are Headed Politically

I tweeted a storm this morning expressing my wish and prayer for Raila and Ruto to bury the hatchet and join hands in delivering the final liberation in the country. I am posting these tweets here for those who have not seen them, and for convenience this being my own recordation of history as it pertains to our beloved Kenya.

1/30 After this purging in #Jubilee, we will still have Jubilee A (#Raila loving) & Jubilee B (Raila hating), question is, how will that affect 2022? Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #Ruto2022

2/30 Unless Uhuru backs @RailaOdinga, there will be three serious contenders for the presidency in 2022: Raila, @WilliamsRuto and Kalonzo, and Kalonzo will be backed by Uhuru and the system in that scenario. @skmusyoka @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #Raila#Ruto2022

3/30 In a race involving @RailaOdinga, @WilliamsRuto and #Kalonzo, there will not be 50%+1 majority winner but race will be close enough to rigout everyone in favor of @skmusyoka just like 2013 when a run-off was thwarted by rigging @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

4/30 The outcome will be same even if either @RailaOdinga or @WilliamsRuto emerge victorious in votes cast as @skmusyoka would have caused enough bleeding of votes for either men nationwide to make him come close enough to be rigged in. @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

5/30 It is clear to me while Uhuru wants to back @RailaOdinga for 2022, there are many in the system who do not want that and their position is key in where this is headed. But they also do not want @WilliamsRuto.@skmusyoka @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

6/30 This is why Gideon and Kalonzo have been roped into Jubilee, or more specifically, Jubilee B (those in the party and in the system that do not want either @RailaOdinga or @WilliamsRuto to succeed Uhuru aka Raila and Ruto haters) @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

7/30 Ironically, there is a small but influential group Jubilee C that does not want #Uhuru to remain in office beyond 2022. The group wants both @RailaOdinga and Uhuru to retire in 2022, but they also do not want #Ruto. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

8/30 The system is undeterred in making sure its preference is who is sworn as our next president to succeed regardless of what happens at the polls Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

9/30 Any presidency made possible by the system running interference as they always have will leave bitterness in many and would as usual result in violence, destruction of property and deaths. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

10/30 Given the system is willing to yet again shove down our throats a candidate they prefer other than winner at the ballot, it would behoove @RailaOdinga and #Ruto to bury the hatchet & work hand and glove to defeat them @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

11/30 Do not think they will not do that, namely, thuggishly rig again; they can and would even do so with glee because they are not afraid of you. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

12/30 They are unafraid of you because they know most of you are keyboard warriors who will never join hoi polloi in the streets eating teargas and being killed. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

13/30 The system is, however, afraid of Raila—or at least the man gives them pause, and to a lesser extent, Ruto, who is proving to be a handful to contain, even as they are trying to finish him. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

14/30 That is why #Raila and #Ruto combining forces yet again will present a juggernaut force bigger and more formidable than the system itself; bigger, and more formidable than what we had in 2002 and what Cord had in 2007 @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

15/30 In other words, were the two men to join forces, we shall have intensity of 2002 combined with the “you had your chance but blew it” attitude of 2007 that saw Kibaki sent home but was retained by the system. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

16/30 Just as it was impossible for the system to rig in Uhuru back in 2002, it will be twice as impossible for them to do so in a #RailaRuto victory at the polls this time around compared to 2007. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

17/30 They can only succeed if Raila and Ruto are vying separately in which case the system would have no problem rigging either one of them, which would be comical as that would only have to be Raila, if he does not garner 50%+1 in the first round. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

18/30 This is because we know the system does not want Ruto, at all, but if they must choose between Raila and Ruto, they will prefer Raila. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @edwinsifuna @HonOscarSudi @OliverMathenge #RailaRuto2020

19/30 Again, only problem is there is Jubilee C that does not want either men neither do they want Uhuru to remain in office beyond 2022, notwithstanding yet others in the system that prefers he does. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

20/30 The solution to all this that leaves the country ahead, not stuck in the past with forced leadership at the top, anger and worse is for #Raila and #Ruto to bury the hatchet and join hands in defeating the system. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2020

21/30 Nothing stops @RailaOdinga and @WilliamsRuto from joining hands other than pride, and that is never, ever a good thing to deny yourself and others the benefit of burying the hatchet and reaping the fruits for the sake of good for all. @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

22/30 For #Ruto, it may be wanting to get to State House in a hurry that prevents him to join hands with @RailaOdinga; but that, too, is shortsighted given the larger good that can be derived taking everything into consideration. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

23/30 @RailaOdinga has waited for more than 40 years to be sworn as president (he has won at least once), #Ruto can wait a mere 7 years, knowing #Raila will serve one term as he has always said he would. @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @HonOscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

24/30 Let the duo vie together in 2022 and even though it won’t be Cord again, the dynamics are there to make the team even greater and more unbwogable than Cord was in 2007. @RailaOdinga @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

25/30 This is only scenario that heals and unites the nation, while dismantling the entrenched system that has more say than your vote at the ballot, like it or not—until the system is crippled or dismantled. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

26/30 #BBI is designed to do this, but don’t count on it b/c, if @RailaOdinga, #Ruto Kalonzo vie, the system will rig Kalonzo in with mtadu attitude and there’s nothing mtado beyond being teargassed and killed of which there will be less clamor for that in 2022. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

27/30 Yes, we need #BBI and it shall come to pass as the new law of the land, but at the rate the country is divided we’ll need more to have its ideals realized. @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

28/30 Let Ruto decamp from Jubilee to United Green Party (UGP), join forces to pass BBI and thereafter form an alliance with Raila to defeat the system come 2022 as they will enjoy a tsunami of support as did Kibaki in 2002 and more than they enjoyed in 2007. #RailaRuto2022

29/30 So, brothers and sisters, let us all push for this and let’s make it happen; we can do it! @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @OliverMathenge @OscarSudi #RailaRuto2022

30/30 This is my prayer. #Uhuru @RailaOdinga @WilliamsRuto @edwinsifuna @OscarSudi @OliverMathenge #RailaRuto2022

 

Why Uhuru Need a Third Term: An Update

My column this weekend in the Star is published as Why Uhuru Needs a Third Term in Office. For reasons I provide below, I am posting an update to make it an either proposition, meaning, either giving Uhuru an additional one term, or simply extending his current term in office.

Not surprisingly, this column has generated a lot of interest and comments in social media as well as in the Star portal itself. I have not read all of them but have scanned and see the comments are mostly against the idea.

However, many are also missing the point as to why we must have this discussion to begin with. I have replied to some, and in others I have indicated I’ll post an update to provide more context and specifically address why this discussion must be had.

First question I should answer that I am sure is in many people’s mind, is why did I pen this column? Is it because I have been given instructions by the “system” or Uhuru himself as I have seen some people comment? Is it because I have been so instructed by Raila whom I “worship” as other have commented? Or is it sycophancy seeking favors from Uhuru as yet others have suggested?

The answer is, NO!

None of that.

The simple answer is I have done this based on what I know or can surmise from what I know in order to have a discussion we must have about this. As a Facebook friend put it, “[m]y brother Samuel N. Omwenga penned this piece not because he is Uhuru’s sycophant but to elicit debate based on the probabilities in any political arena.”—Josephat Lister Nyaringo.

To this I responded,

Precisely brother and thanks; key here is having the discourse to flesh out what is really at stake so no one is surprised. The discourse provides opportunity for people’s views to be incorporated in a solution that must also be had in tackling what is at the core of all of this: Expanding democracy and inclusiveness in a manner that is not threatening to the system that controls it all and keeps us endlessly stuck in the same vicious, violent circle of elections if their attitude is to rebuff our efforts. More on this as we continue the discourse.

Here is what I know and that is, what we call the system is not quite ready to give up power or give it to Raila or Ruto.

I also know something else that does not belong in the public domain that informs or at least gives more credence to that view. Those who know, know.

That is what I know.

Here is what we all know: President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga saw it fit to have a handshake for purposes of healing the country’s wounds and bringing us together.

At the core of their handshake deal, is constitutional and institutional reform to ensure a governance system that is more inclusive and less tribalistic while ensuring more even exploitation and sharing of the national cake.

Included in the latter objective is elimination or seriously curtailing cartels and corruption (follow the Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru on what that entails).

Before COVID-19 threw breaks on to put us where we are with everything, BBI was on high gear as Raila led in efforts to popularize it and bring it to fruitful near end where Uhuru was expected to join and bring it across the finish line with full implementation of its core propositions.

That implementation is yet to happen—and from everything we know, it shall be the case BBI shall be implemented as envisioned by both Uhuru and Raila, with the backing and support of all those behind them.

There are three methods or avenues by which the BBI proposals can be implemented:

A. By Parliamentary Action. All proposals that do not implicate the Constitution, meaning, not requiring amendment of the constitution will be approved via normal parliamentary procedures and become law as any other ordinary bill becomes law.

B. By Executive Action. All proposals that do not require constitutional amendment or parliamentary action will be implemented via Executive action as ordinary and normal Executive Orders.

C. Constitutional Amendment. Any proposal that requires constitutional amendment must go through the constitution amendment process.

Based on what I know, we are headed to another constitutional amendment process question is, how?

There are only two options to amend the Kenya Constitution, which are found in Chapter Sixteen: via parliamentary initiative that requires 2/3 majority vote approval upon public participation and deliberation in Parliament or via popular initiative popularly referred to as a referendum.

Previously, it was completely out of question to initiate amending the constitution for BBI purposes through parliament because it was believed Ruto had the numbers to thwart or kill the efforts in parliament.

However, with the recent successful purging of Ruto loyalists from both houses of the legislature, it is plausible now Uhuru and Raila alongside the coalition Uhuru is forming to push his agenda through can get this done—or at least start the process through.

Of course, they can drop the idea anytime and go the referendum route, which is a sure in, given the tools available to both men to make that happen.

Regardless of which route the men take us to implement BBI, one thing is clear and that is, thanks but no thanks to COVID-19 and the uncertainty as to what its full effects would be when it’s finally contained, it will be highly unlikely there will be time left between that and currently scheduled election time for Uhuru to complete or even come close to completing his agenda.

Besides the Big Four agenda whose implementation everyone knows is Uhuru’s priority, what is even a higher priority for him, believe it or not, is making sure BBI is fully implemented.

Uhuru is not alone in this vision; rather, he has the backing and support of a number of key “system” members and drivers who are also tired of power rotation between the Kikuyu and Kale communities and want more inclusivity and an end to this circle of rigged or disputed elections that lead to destruction of property, violence and deaths every five years.

Again, there is another dimension to this that does not belong in the public domain so let me just say knowledge of it makes it even more imperative the solution suggested here.

Given this dynamic, and the reason I have penned this article, we must start thinking and looking for a solution whereby Uhuru and Raila usher in the much needed constitutional changes to implement BBI and, more importantly, remain the driving forces to see full implementation of the desired changes.

All this requires time and resources of which there is not enough between now and August 2022 when the next elections are scheduled to be held.

Although the initial headline for this column said to give Uhuru a third term, that proposition is anathema to a vast majority of people for various reasons, and regardless of any merits for adding the term.

The primary opposition to giving Uhuru a third term is centered on—and rightly so, I must add, that adding another term to expired to terms will be akin to going back life for president times, which we all reject.

However, it is also a fact we would need at least another four years from now, assuming COVID-19 goes away this year, for all these things that needs to be done to be done.

That puts us at having elections in 2024, which means that requires amending the constitution to give Uhuru two more years beyond his current term.

I can hear those of you saying why can’t all these be done in the two years left of Uhuru’s second term, and the complete answer, unfortunately, I cannot give because it would require disclosure of that which I have said does not belong in the public domain and therefore must not be disclosed.

In the time between now and then, meaning between now and the end of the president’s extended period (not added term), the president and parliament with approval of the courts can and must put in place a government of national unity (GNI) whose objective is to (a) make sure BBI proposals become law and (b) the country is fully prepared to make a transition to an expanded and more inclusive democracy by the next election to be held at the end of Uhuru’s extended time.

How the GNI is put in place and consistent with BBI implementation via constitutional amendment is beyond the scope of this article suffice to say there is a way and an easy one for that matter.

Ditto what happens to Parliament as the Constitution requires that parliamentary elections also be held during the presidential election.

That can be dealt with but the focus here is what to do with the presidency.

In this scenario, Uhuru will have two years balance of his presidency, plus another two years which should be couched as “transitional” where GNU will remain intact through the end of that extended time.

Elections will then be held at the conclusion of that extended time and Kenya shall be on a new path devoid of all these ills, electoral violence and deaths we have suffered for decades because of bad politics.

Put another way, this solution of extended Uhuru presidency will provide a win, win, win resolution of this complex issue we are trying to resolve, and is at the core of all of this and that is: tribalism based governance system where power is wielded and exercised by only two tribes at the expense of all others.

Again, I am leaving out a critical element of this that does not belong in the public domain, but I have shared privately with those who need to know and are in a position to influence the outcome of this for them to incorporate it into their own thinking.

Well, there you have it; I hope the case is clearer but leave a comment or question below but, more importantly, please continue the discussion in your own circles for the good of the country.

 

Elections Should Be Held in 2021, Not 2022

Our next elections in Kenya should be in August 2021, not August 2022, if the Constitution is to be interpreted correctly.

Pls take interest, follow and support this case challenging the prevailing belief that our next elections in Kenya should be in 2022. I’ll provide updates for those who are not able to closely follow.

Constitutional law arguments aside, it is imperative that we hold our next elections as soon as possible to avoid a more prolonged period of campaign mode to succeed #Uhuru that we are already in.

It was bad enough succession politics had paralyzed things before #COVID-19 but resumption of paralysis owing to succession politics for another 2 years will make recovery from the pandemic difficult, if not impossible.

If elections are held next year, then there will be a one-two punch: implement #BBI and go into elections in less than 1 year–that will go a long way to help in the recovery from #Corona while setting us on a path to political rejuvination as well. #KenyaElections2021 #BuildingBridges, #BBI #Jubilee,

 

The Wailing of A Kikuyu Voter

This piece is not for the lackadaisical reader but is worth the read so, take time and read it through as it’s an analysis I have decided to do from an article I disclose below and I believe strongly the message needs to beard by all who care about our beloved country; heck, even if you don’t care, just read it and you’ll be glad you did. If not, well, it’s corona time so likely not much else to do with all the available time:-)

Excerpt:

…

In the lead-up to the 2017 presidential elections, Njuguna and I had had many heated discussions on who Kenyans should elect as president. That time he told me, “Uhuru ni gaitu ga guicirira…mukuigwa uguo…” (Uhuru is ours by birth and blood…you can lump it if you don’t like it).

…

“Iguthua ndogoria, itikinyagira nyeki,” said my friend, a matatu driver to me. Translated metaphorically, it means a limping shepherd leads his flock astray. Literally it means, a leader who lacks foresight cannot lead his people to greener pastures. Essentially, he becomes a burden to his people.

…

My matatu driver friend said that in some parts of Kiambu County, where he grew up and still lives, he knows of families that have been rendered jobless. Even with their meagre incomes, at least they could afford to buy food. “Now that meagre pay is not forthcoming. How do you expect these people to survive? Still, the president talks of ‘my fellow Kenyans’. No muhaka ticiria uhoro wa muturire witu wa hau kabere.” We must seriously think of how lives will be in the future.

“For me, I already have”, said the driver. “I’ve thought long and hard and I’ve come to the conclusion that I’ll never again participate in electoral politics. What’s the point? Uhuru and his band of politicians can spend millions of shillings cheating our mothers with branded lesos [kitenge-like wrapping cloth, popular with women], caps and T-Shirts, yet he cannot find money to buy the same women masks.

…

“The Kenyatta family runs the biggest milk production company in this part of the world, but it cannot, even for one day, say it will subsidise the price of milk so that poor people can afford it. That is the same milk they get from those poor farmers in Mt Kenya region.”

…

“But look what happened? Kikuyus hitched their wagon on a fading horse, a wild horse that didn’t, in the first place, know where it was headed and how it was heading wherever it was heading. Yet we Kikuyus couldn’t stop to ask these important questions because we were consumed by ethnic jingoism. We were all in a tribally induced trance…now we’re all paying for it. I’ve thought about these things: cooked up presidential elections, tribal voting, about Uhuru, politicians, why people are suffering, and now coronavirus and I can tell you we’re living in apocalyptic times.”

…

“The Kikuyu people are bewitched,” mused Njuguna. “How do you explain the fact that one family has been able to control the thinking of an entire group for so long?” I asked him whether he had been bewitched during the 2013 and 2017 elections. He said yes. “How else can I explain my total conviction in Uhuru’s presidency without wanting to brook any contrary opinion? My sister being stuck in China is the last straw that broke the camel’s back. We are through with Uhuru…”

…

If there is one thing coronavirus ought to teach us, said my friend, is that we Kenyans need to think long and hard about the future of the country: “What do we want for ourselves? What kind of leaders do we desire? How do we right the political wrongs we’ve made? Talking specifically to my fellow Kikuyus: How do we unchain ourselves from the Kenyatta family servitude? This will be critical if the Kikuyu people in the coming years hope to be part of the struggle to liberate the country from the shackles of predatory politics.”

These are the words of a Kikuyu voter identified only by the name Njuguna in an article appearing in the Elephant and titled …Is the Love Between Uhuru and the Kikuyus Over?

I have read many articles, watched news, listened to talking heads on TV shows in Kenya and know since the handshake, there has been a drumbeat of anti-Uhuru rhetoric, which started right after the handshake with Raila and the criticism started off as expressions of confusion regarding the handshake—and understandably so as no one expected the handshake to mild criticism and in no time, the unleashing of whining and complaining that morphed into outright insults and even daring of Uhuru to silence those leading in these unprecedented attacks on a president of Kenya.

In this one piece, Dauti Kahura, its author has captured nearly all of the collective case made against Uhuru and Jubilee.

It is also the reason I have extensively quoted the article more than I would usually do in any of my blogs or writings.

I have captioned the heading as wailing of a Kikuyu voter, but I may as well captioned it as the confessions of a Kikuyu voter.

This is because what this Kikuyu voter has said in behalf of all Kikuyus is something many of us non-Kikuyus have known for decades and said as much but all to deaf ears and this can be summed up as follows:

First, tribalism is the disease that is eating out our core.
Second, even though voting is always along tribal lines, Kikuyus alone cannot win the presidency in Kenya as that is an impossibility constitutionally but, even with some gobbled up coalition to rope in another big tribe like the Kalenjin as was the case in 2013, they still cannot win the presidency without the help of vifaranga vya komputa.

Third, even as Kikuyus have voted for their own for president to the man and woman (give or take about 10% who voted for Raila at all relevant elections), most of them have never benefitted from having so voted as only the rich among them benefit, alongside those have connections with them and in some negligent numbers relative to the total population, some hoi polloi who may get some trickle down benefits such as their kith and kin through nepotistic employment.

Fourth, even with full knowledge of the fact they NEVER benefit from having gaitu ga guicirira (birth and blood), the Kikuyus, lured by lofty speeches at rallies, campaign paraphernalia and a reminder of their “superior” status as “nyumba kubwa” (the entitled ones), once again turn up in large numbers to vote for their “own” only to repeat the same circle of continuing to live in the same miserable conditions to no end.

Fifth, it took the government’s inability to bring home a relative stuck in Wahun, China for this Kikuyu voter to say enough is enough. “My sister being stuck in China is the last straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said. Well, a most voters who voted in October 2017 had reached the same conclusion and voted for change that never saw the light of day. Ditto in 2013. It took this Kikuyu voter’s sister being stuck in China to feel the pain all these other voters have felt all these years.

Now that this Kikuyu voter, and all those from the region have seen the light, what next?
Obviously hating Uhuru and calling him names is not it.

However, recognizing all these failures and shortcomings the country has lived with through all these decades, it is time to find solutions, not more whining and complaining about it.

We start by an admission as this Kikuyu voter has that most of you have been brainwashed to believe in tribalism, which is a myopic and backward belief that only serves the interests of those who whip you into buying the crap.

We start by finding common ground as a nation, regardless of tribe in finding a formula that works for us to pull through not just this pandemic, but in all future social, political and, economic challenges.

We start by fixing the government so that voter say counts in an election.

We start by de-coupling tribe from government so that being in government is not determined or decided by what tribe you belong.

We start by making sure those in government are held accountable to what they do or do not do.

We start by demanding and having elected leaders who are not in office to line their pockets at the expense of those they are supposed to represent.

We start by demanding that parts of our constitution such as Chapter 6 on integrity are not just empty words.

We start by accepting the reality you cannot do the same things over and over but expect a different result.

These things can all be done at the same time, starting with implementation of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).

Only then we can have a Kenya we can ALL be proud of and, more importantly, a Kenya that works for ALL of us, not just for the few who continually empty our coffers for their selfish benefit and enjoyment at the expense of everyone else they live with nothing to even survive on.

May God bless our country and open our eyes and hearts to see this is what is at stake.

 

Duale Survives, But No Work To Do

Majority Leader in the National Assembly Aden Duale survived the purge being undertaken by President Uhuru Kenyatta in the ongoing Jubilee party leadership changes. I earlier said the following about Duale’s surviving and put it like this:

I have been saying for a long time the only person who would have saved Duale’s job as majority leader is David Murathe as Uhuru did not care either way if Duale remained.

I subsequently changed my mind and said it was a toss up between Murathe and one other significant person who wanted Duale gone. As it was reported in the media, it was Uhuru to decide which of the two men will have their way.

It turns out Uhuru sided with Murathe to keep Duale in the leadership position therefore Duale now must do as Murathe (read: the system) tells him to do and will only be happy to do so. Uhuru will just sit and watch but, as always, he reaps and enjoys the fruits of the system’s labors with no sweat.

This is also why it was easy for Uhuru to lean in Murathe’s direction because Duale has never once insulted or disrespected him and neither has he failed to push through the president’s agenda as told.

In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.

Here’s what I said in sharing this story on Twitter:

Duale’s job was saved because (1) unlike others, he never insulted or disrespected #Uhuru (2) he did as told by Uhuru in carrying out his agenda in Parliament even as he was nibbling from #Ruto and (3) because he had #Murathe on his side.

I also said because of Duale’s dalliance with Ruto, he is no longer trusted by many in Uhuru’s camp, though he continues to enjoy the friendship and support of Murathe, who as I said was instrumental in saving him.

However, given the complications raised with this dalliance with Ruto, I posited that Duale keeps his job but he’ll be told what to do and must deliver without wavering lest the axe still comes down on him.

What is emerging now is Uhuru and those advising him have a better plan and that is, to yank all agenda management responsibilities from Duale as Majority Leader and give those to someone more trusted in a new position to be created to manage the affairs of the coalition in formation.

Indeed, it is believed the Secretariat for the new coalition is already in place so this will be a liaison position held by an MP Uhuru and the coalition trusts to move their collective agenda.

That being the case, Duale will have the title but no work to do than more than any ordinary MP does, if at all; not even as chairman of a committee.

This is brilliant as its akin to killing two birds with one stone: keep Duale supporters happy, including family and constituents while making sure he has zero opportunity to undermine or frustrate Uhuru and coalition agenda.

The icing on the cake is he’ll be completely powerless and incapable of helping Ruto as they most certainly plotted previously.

Which begs the question, why would Ruto fight so hard to keep Duale in this powerful position if he cannot help him?

The answer is simple: Ruto is in the dark about the impending coalition arrangement and, in particular, these plans to neuter the position of majority leader to render it powerless, much like the DP’s own office has been reduced to an as needed assistant to the president, not the lofty nearly co-president responsibilities and autonomy he previously enjoyed.

That’s Kenya for you but I must admit I am liking it only to the extent we fix the system to allow these three things that are crucial for all of us progressives:

1. Ending rotation of the presidency between two tribes
2. Ending violence, destruction of property and deaths that follow each general election circle that are always disputed since independence save for once in 2002.
3. Ensuring inclusivity and putting an end to nepotism and tribalism in government hiring and tendering usually favoring those from the tribes that have swapped the presidency to near exclusion of all others.

This is the primary reason I and others oppose the presidency of Ruto in 2022 for we must break this rotation of the presidency between two tribes.

I will have no issue and would even support him if he vied in 2027, and God willing unless the president who succeeds Uhuru does such a fantastic job such that it would be imprudent not to support him or her for re-election.

In other words, nothing personal here; Ruto is a good man who simply finds himself at the wrong place and at the wrong time, never mind that he hustled to get here as he often claims–but propelled by the system is more like it.

That very system has now rejected him for their own reasons, those of us who want to see the breaking of this rotation of the presidency are simply beneficiaries of the rejection and that is alright as country is larger than an individual.

 

 

What You Need To Know About the Rarely Used Insurrection Act Trump is Threatening to Invoke

The Insurrection Act of 1807 is a United States federal law that empowers the president of the United States to deploy military troops within the United States in specific circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion.

The man whose secretary of state never denied calling a moron says he will invoke the law and send the military to US cities where there are demonstrations and riots “if a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents.”

The question is, can he do this?

To be sure, and throughout the history of this country, this law is rarely used and the last time it was invoked was back in in 1992 to quell the Los Angeles riots after the acquittal of four white police officers in the merciless beating of Rodney King, a black man.

Before that, the act was used in 1989 during widespread looting in St. Croix, Virgin Islands, after Hurricane Hugo.

So, technically, yes, he can but not as easily as he makes it sound. As I conclude below, certainly not under these circumstances.

Another question is whether the president can do this on his own, without the request of the affected state or states and here legal experts say he can.

However, there is a presumption (and this is my surmise on this) that the president taking this action is doing so for proper, safety and law and order related reasons, not to wag the dog or to impress his base on what a strongman he is or can be, or to distract from his other failures such as disastrous response to a pandemic that is still ravaging the country.

Otherwise, if there is no basis to invoke the act and one does so for these nefarious or bogus reasons, namely, to impress his base or for personal political gain, then that is clearly abuse of office and some can argue an impeachable offense.

My view on this is #GeorgeFloyd demonstrations have made their point let the action now focus on making sure the anger is converted to votes in November and let’s root out those in elective office that have been enablers of all things bad for the country, starting with the presidency and on down.

This will (a) deny the man opportunity to invoke this law and (b) make sure we need not worry about shameless and reckless shenanigans and antics like this after November.

 

Uhuru’s Break-up with Ruto Is Irreversible

In politics, optics are as important as substance so anyone is free to interpret optics as they fancy it’s a question of how most people see it.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto showed up at today’s Madaraka Day celebrations donning matching or nearly matching suits, shoes, red ties and masks which had some Kenyans excited, especially on social media wondering if the two have reconciled and returned to their earlier days bromance where they were also wearing matching shirts and ties to project their joined at the hip brotherly love.

An interesting question to ask nonetheless is whether the donning of this matching attire was meant to be a statement or coincidental? That’s something none of us can tell or know for sure, but given nothing is coincidental in politics, at least not of this level of detail, one can assume there was some coordination to convey a message, leaving the further question, what message?

If history is anything to go by, wiser counsel is to not assume much from this because, two politicians laughing and high fiving each other today does not mean they will do so tomorrow if their interests diverge.

Indeed, even forgetting about history for a moment and just look at what has happened to Ruto in the past few weeks, the political whupping he has received and the damage is irreversible at this point.

Right now and to the foreseeable future, there’s nothing Ruto can do to reverse course on which his political demise is on for at least 2022 politics.

It is said anything is possible in politics but that’s an overstatement as the requisite conditions and circumstances must be right for that to be the case.

While Ruto can throw in the towel in as far as succeeding Uhuru goes, and seek whatever crumps the system may throw his way come 2022, fact is the man from Sugoi is politically finished and his ambition for 2022 came crashing when all his backers in the Senate abandoned and did not even bother to put up a fight against the purge that took place there.

Others have wobbled and shown signs or even outright told friends they will not be there for Ruto if the choice came to between backing him or doing as Uhuru wishes.

Indeed, according to one number cruncher I know who is privy to an analysis that has been done as to who is likely to vote for who and why on the question of impeaching Ruto, if a motion to that effect is brought in the national assembly, and if the ongoing Jubilee negotiations with national leaders for a grand coalition holds, Uhuru is short between 8 and 15 votes of the 233 needed to impeach Ruto, if he opts to go this route.

That’s a number that Uhuru can whip and have their votes within minutes.

According to the same source, the votes are there to remove Ruto in the Senate–and by a large margin.

Wachana na impeachment kwa sasa; that’s the mother of all battles but there is smaller though significant battle to be fought and won and that is continued purging of Ruto loyalists this time at the National Assembly where efforts to save Duale appear to have failed and now he’s facing the chop.

I said the other day only Murathe can save Duale from being axed but I have changed my mind and now say Murathe has punted because someone else wants Duale out more than Murathe wants him in.

My new thinking is partially informed by recent reporting that it is now up-to Uhuru who really doesn’t care one way or another to decide whether Duale stays as majority leader or is out.

The irony of ironies as I see it is this:

If Ruto is spared the humiliation of removal from office by impeachment (which I advised against in my weekend oped) to politically live to fight another day for the presidency (2027 or 2032), then he must agree to (a) the purging that is next to take place at the National Assembly, including removal of Duale as majority leader and (b) not to whine at all about several CSs deemed loyal to him that will soon be shown the exit door to make room for the new government of national unity in formation.

In my belief, what you saw today is quintessentially a part of that amicable divorce if Ruto can live up-to his end of this lowly bargain that leaves him an empty suit wandering around the walls of power with absolutely nothing to do but pass time.

Interestingly, and relevant for this matching attire excitement, Ruto’s problems lie not with Uhuru, but the very system that put them together in the first place, and later in office without the votes required under the constitution.

That system calls the shots, not Uhuru.

Unfortunately for Ruto, his calculations and schemes at the expense of Uhuru has alienated him from the man such that even he has come around to let the system have its way without him trying to stop them or make it harder.

I have personally met and chatted with Uhuru twice and the last time was at a prominent Kenyan politician’s home just after passage of the 2010 constitution. On both occasions, I was very impressed how articulate and charming the man was and not for a moment did I think I was talking to this person the media depicted as a clueless someone born with a silver spoon in his mouth.

That man, I surmised then, and remain so convinced today, is shrewd, intelligent, knows what he is doing and underrate him at your own peril.

Ruto underrated him at his peril and that peril is the music he is facing right now, with more to come down the road.

I also know the man rewards loyalty like no other; meaning, had Ruto remained loyal through and through to him without undercutting and remaining quiet as his foot soldiers insulted and disrespected him, Ruto would been in exactly the same situation Raila was with Kibaki through elections: someone his coalition partner and the system did not want to see the inside of State House as president but waited to election day to say so loudly and clearly.

In other words, yes, had Ruto remained loyal to Uhuru, he would have gone to 2022 as a leading presidential candidate to succeed Uhuru and even probably carried the day in votes but only to be rigged out by the system because they just cannot have the man in office as president.

For many, many reasons not the least of which is their fear he will finish them, especially those who have let it known from the very beginning he sits where he sits as a matter of convenience for them, not some self-made hustler prowess he does not tire to project though rendered useless by recent events with more to come.

So, my take is there is no bromance here it is likely Uhuru has given Ruto a nice send-off from State House as the man may not even be there as DP come next Madaraka Day, or even Jamhuri Day unless he lives through the pain of political austerity measures Uhuru and the system have tailor made for him.

UPDATE

Since posting this blog, Uhuru had a Jubilee PG meeting and Duale’s job was saved. Here is what I posted elsewhere as an update:

I have been saying for a long time the only person who would have saved Duale’s job as majority leader is David #Murathe as #Uhuru did not care either way if #Duale remained. I changed my mind and said it was now a toss up between Murathe and one other significant person who wanted Duale gone. As it was reported in the media, it was Uhuru to decide which of the two men will have their way.

It turns out Murathe has and now Duale must do as Murathe (read: the system) tells him to do and will only be happy to do so. This is also why it was easy for Uhuru to lean in Murathe’s direction because Duale has never once insulted or disrespected him and neither has he failed to push through the president’s agenda as told. In other words, he keeps his job in part because he has been clever in not offending the hands the fed him.